12z NAM-Dennis

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Vortex
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12z NAM-Dennis

#1 Postby Vortex » Wed Jul 06, 2005 9:25 am

12z rolling out...looks interesting in that Cindy really breaks down the ridge and allows for a more n component beginning tonight.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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#2 Postby Canelaw99 » Wed Jul 06, 2005 9:28 am

:eek: Hope that is an easterly outlier in the end - don't like the direction it has Dennis headed
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#3 Postby chris_fit » Wed Jul 06, 2005 9:31 am

I hope it's just really early in the morning for that model and it has no idea on what it's doing :roll:
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Through h-36 quite interesting

#4 Postby Vortex » Wed Jul 06, 2005 9:32 am

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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#5 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 06, 2005 9:32 am

watch of FL! :eek:
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#6 Postby Rainband » Wed Jul 06, 2005 9:33 am

eastern cuba would shred him. Good news if that happens :D
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#7 Postby chris_fit » Wed Jul 06, 2005 9:33 am

They way it's looking now on this model it would probably through the entire island of Cube, getting weaker, I hope.
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#8 Postby BonesXL » Wed Jul 06, 2005 9:34 am

:eek: Yeah, I really don't like the look of that model.
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#9 Postby Brent » Wed Jul 06, 2005 9:34 am

Rainband wrote:eastern cuba would shred him. Good news if that happens :D


I don't know about "shred". Hispanola would shred him(and he's not going there). NAM looks way too far east.
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#10 Postby boca » Wed Jul 06, 2005 9:35 am

I'm not worried about this one because the bernuda high is so strong it will keep Dennis WNW thru the Yucatan channel and hit the northen GUlf coast.
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Re: 12z NAM-Dennis

#11 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Jul 06, 2005 9:36 am

Vortex wrote:12z rolling out...looks interesting in that Cindy really breaks down the ridge and allows for a more n component beginning tonight.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml


BUt it doesn't break it down as much as it did on the 00Z run...compare the two...

The 00Z run:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036m.gif

The 12Z run valid the same time:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024m.gif

Notice the current run has Dennis more south than 12 hours ago...and Cindy more north with the trof not extending down as far...and the ridge into the GOM is stronger.
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Re: 12z NAM-Dennis

#12 Postby chris_fit » Wed Jul 06, 2005 9:37 am

Air Force Met wrote:
Vortex wrote:12z rolling out...looks interesting in that Cindy really breaks down the ridge and allows for a more n component beginning tonight.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml


BUt it doesn't break it down as much as it did on the 00Z run...compare the two...

The 00Z run:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036m.gif

The 12Z run valid the same time:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024m.gif

Notice the current run has Dennis more south than 12 hours ago...and Cindy more north with the trof not extending down as far...and the ridge into the GOM is stronger.


So basically this model isn't thinking correctly, right?
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#13 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Jul 06, 2005 9:38 am

Also compare the 06Z run from last night...at the same time

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_030m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024m.gif

New run is also further south and a lot weaker on the trof...
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#14 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Jul 06, 2005 9:40 am

Not necessarily Chris...it's jsut typical model flip flopping. However, the ETA has never been really great at predicting the movement...I use it mostly to figure out the ridging....and the newer run has weaker troughing and stronger ridging.
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#15 Postby chris_fit » Wed Jul 06, 2005 9:41 am

Air Force Met wrote:....and the newer run has weaker troughing and stronger ridging.


This model is bringing to SE FL with a weaker trough, and stronger ridge... I'm so confused. :eek: :?:
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#16 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Jul 06, 2005 9:44 am

chris_fit wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:....and the newer run has weaker troughing and stronger ridging.


This model is bringing to SE FL with a weaker trough, and stronger ridge... I'm so confused. :eek: :?:


That model isn't going to verify. Listen to air force met on this.
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#17 Postby flashflood » Wed Jul 06, 2005 9:50 am

How do they initialize the model with the tropical storm. It appears to me that the TC is moving in a more westward motion and the high to the north looks relatively strong enough, at least for the short term. Why do the some models keep showing it moving NW from the start?
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#18 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Jul 06, 2005 9:51 am

Notice the model only has it at 1012mb...so...does anyone thing that will verify? remember too that stronger storms are getting steered by different flow than weak ones...so the models is basically tracking this as a low level feature...which it won't be.
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