Tropical Storm Dennis

slowjoe · #221 Postby **slowjoe** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 10:25 pm

Could the trough they are refering to be the tail extending from Cidney which is now visibly starting to hang over florida panhandle?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/VIS/20.jpg :?:

#222 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 10:26 pm

slowjoe wrote:Could the trough they are refering to be the tail extending from Cidney which is now visibly starting to hang over florida panhandle?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/VIS/20.jpg

It's forecast to be long gone by day 5.

tw861 · #223 Postby **tw861** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 10:27 pm

I know this radar has been discussed before:

http://www.weather.an/sat_img/radar.asp

Sure looks mostly west to me, and the center is clearly visible. The last frame is about 1 1/2 hrs old.

Normandy · #224 Postby **Normandy** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 10:34 pm

*Patiently waits for Dennis's eye to show*

slowjoe · #225 Postby **slowjoe** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 10:39 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
slowjoe wrote:Could the trough they are refering to be the tail extending from Cidney which is now visibly starting to hang over florida panhandle?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/VIS/20.jpg

It's forecast to be long gone by day 5.

I know they are forcasting Cindy to be gone...but that tail she has could hang around as a trough for much longer. Just a thought. 8-)

Wnghs2007 · #226 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 10:51 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
slowjoe wrote:Could the trough they are refering to be the tail extending from Cidney which is now visibly starting to hang over florida panhandle?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/VIS/20.jpg

It's forecast to be long gone by day 5.

There is lower hieghts at 300 mb and 200 mb and apparently that is what they are citing....I dont really know, I really dont see anything. But hey, Im not going to doubt the NHC. Atleast not outloud. :lol:

#227 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 6:03 am

Advisory comming soon.Will they upgrade to hurricane?.

Rainband · #228 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 6:06 am

#229 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 6:38 am

Advisory in a few minutes.

#230 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:02 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005

...DENNIS CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND FOR
EASTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO
DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.8 WEST OR ABOUT
255 MILES... 410 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
AND ABOUT 440 MILES... 710 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS
TRACK...DENNIS WILL BE NEAR JAMAICA EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 65 MPH... 100 KM/HR... WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...15.2 N... 70.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

#231 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:15 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005

...DENNIS CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND FOR
EASTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO
DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.8 WEST OR ABOUT
255 MILES... 410 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
AND ABOUT 440 MILES... 710 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS
TRACK...DENNIS WILL BE NEAR JAMAICA EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 65 MPH... 100 KM/HR... WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...15.2 N... 70.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

#232 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:17 am

06/1145 UTC 14.9N 70.9W T3.5/3.5 DENNIS -- Atlantic Ocean

Almost a hurricane.

Steve H. · #233 Postby **Steve H.** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:22 am

Well they have it at 15.2 N/70.9W - not 14.9 Luis. That being said, it looks to be moving west to me.....not 300 degrees!

#234 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:27 am

Steve H. wrote:Well they have it at 15.2 N/70.9W - not 14.9 Luis. That being said, it looks to be moving west to me.....not 300 degrees!

The 14.9n is not from me is from them

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Agree that the motion is not 300 now more like 290.

#235 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:46 am

TROPICAL STORM DENNIS (AL042005) ON 20050706 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050706 1200 050707 0000 050707 1200 050708 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.2N 70.9W 16.4N 73.3W 17.6N 75.7W 18.9N 77.8W
BAMM 15.2N 70.9W 16.6N 73.4W 17.9N 75.9W 19.2N 78.2W
A98E 15.2N 70.9W 16.3N 73.3W 17.6N 75.5W 19.1N 77.6W
LBAR 15.2N 70.9W 16.5N 73.4W 17.9N 76.1W 19.3N 78.7W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050708 1200 050709 1200 050710 1200 050711 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.1N 79.9W 22.5N 83.1W 25.7N 86.3W 30.2N 89.9W
BAMM 20.4N 80.4W 22.8N 84.0W 25.6N 87.4W 28.7N 90.6W
A98E 20.8N 79.6W 23.6N 83.7W 27.2N 86.3W 31.8N 87.8W
LBAR 20.8N 81.1W 24.1N 84.7W 27.9N 86.8W 30.5N 89.5W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.2N LONCUR = 70.9W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 14.3N LONM12 = 68.5W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 13.1N LONM24 = 65.8W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 991MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 25NM RD34NW = 75NM

70 mph at next advisory at 11 AM.

Refresh grafic.

Website · #236 Postby **Brent** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:57 am

Bad Bad Bad UKMET!! :eek:

That puts me in the eastern part of whatever's left of the center.

#237 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:58 am

Ok grafic now updated.Refresh it to see the 12:38z run.

#238 Postby **Roxy** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 8:08 am

does anyone have an opinion on how much these model runs will change over the next few days? I always ignore them at first because inevitably they change (just like the NHC 5 day map) but I am starting to take this one seriously.

Any reason they'd veer somewhere else?

#239 Postby **Canelaw99** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 8:10 am

I expect them to continue flip-flopping through today, at least, and probably into tomorrow as well. By tomorrow, I'll probably begin to pay more attention just because we in S. FL would begin to feel effects before those on the northern Gulf Coast.

#240 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 8:13 am

cycloneye wrote:TROPICAL STORM DENNIS (AL042005) ON 20050706 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050706 1200 050707 0000 050707 1200 050708 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.2N 70.9W 16.4N 73.3W 17.6N 75.7W 18.9N 77.8W
BAMM 15.2N 70.9W 16.6N 73.4W 17.9N 75.9W 19.2N 78.2W
A98E 15.2N 70.9W 16.3N 73.3W 17.6N 75.5W 19.1N 77.6W
LBAR 15.2N 70.9W 16.5N 73.4W 17.9N 76.1W 19.3N 78.7W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050708 1200 050709 1200 050710 1200 050711 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.1N 79.9W 22.5N 83.1W 25.7N 86.3W 30.2N 89.9W
BAMM 20.4N 80.4W 22.8N 84.0W 25.6N 87.4W 28.7N 90.6W
A98E 20.8N 79.6W 23.6N 83.7W 27.2N 86.3W 31.8N 87.8W
LBAR 20.8N 81.1W 24.1N 84.7W 27.9N 86.8W 30.5N 89.5W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.2N LONCUR = 70.9W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 14.3N LONM12 = 68.5W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 13.1N LONM24 = 65.8W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 991MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 25NM RD34NW = 75NM

70 mph at next advisory at 11 AM.

Refresh grafic.

Tropical Storm Dennis

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