UKMET= Florida

[hurricanetrack]

Here is the latest UKMET output:

TROPICAL STORM DENNIS ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 68.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042005

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.07.2005 14.7N 68.5W MODERATE
12UTC 06.07.2005 16.0N 71.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.07.2005 17.1N 73.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.07.2005 19.0N 75.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.07.2005 21.3N 79.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.07.2005 22.7N 81.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.07.2005 23.5N 83.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.07.2005 24.7N 84.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.07.2005 26.9N 84.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.07.2005 29.0N 85.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 11.07.2005 31.2N 85.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 11.07.2005 33.4N 85.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 12.07.2005 35.7N 87.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

[Hurricaneman]

That would be bad for the panhandle

[WXFIEND]

I wish they would put the model output in a graphic,... I'm not too good with coordinates so this really means nothing to me. LOL

[WeatherEmperor]

I wish they would put the model output in a graphic,... I'm not too good with coordinates so this really means nothing to me. LOL

Yeah me either. Im just sitting and clicking the refresh botton on this website that has model output and am still waiting for the UKMET to update graphically.

<RICKY>

[LilNoles2005]

projected landfall: just west of Apalachicola.

[WeatherEmperor]

All of this model shifting shows us why its not a good idea to even try to speculate where Dennis will make landfall. Oh Im just dying to read the 5am discussion on Dennis. (Fortunately I dont have class until 5pm tomorrow so I can stay up all night cause Im taking nightclasses now at FIU instead of those horrible morning classes...ugh)

<RICKY>

[rsdoug1981]

The 00z Euro is out. It agrees with the GFS, but is much slower than the GFS. The 00z Euro is consistent with its 12z run from yesterday.

[WeatherEmperor]

The 00z Euro is out. It agrees with the GFS, but is much slower than the GFS. The 00z Euro is consistent with its 12z run from yesterday.

Where does the 00Z Euro go to?

<RICKY>

[Wnghs2007]

The 00z Euro is out. It agrees with the GFS, but is much slower than the GFS. The 00z Euro is consistent with its 12z run from yesterday.

Not trying to say anything but this is the third time in the 2 years that I can remember that the ECMWF has tried to put the bullseye on New Orleans (Ivan I, Arlene, This) and so far its 0 for 2 and has been 2 far west both times. Something in my bones gives me a sneaking suspision that it is to far west again.

[Hurricaneman]

Panama city FL

[rsdoug1981]

Tonight's Euro moves Dennis into New Orleans. Check it out...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 5070600!!/

[Hurricaneman]

That is a bad storm if that verifies

[ericinmia]

The euro is one model i tend to follow, however its not initializing this storm at all.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

72 hours from now, western tip of cuba, not even a closed low???

This model has no creedance just based upon that. If you start with bad data, you can't expect to get good results.
They need to re-intialize the storm on the next run, mabye they will get their data straight by tomorrow. Otherwise this is completely worthless.
-Eric