7/6 0Z Canadian run - Pensacola Sunday morning

[WeatherNole]

First things first - while the GEM (Canadian model) did fairly well with Cindy, and performed ok last year, we're still talking about a 108 hour forecast, so don't go nuts just yet.

NOW - that being said, the new GEM shows a Sunday morning landfall in the Pensacola/Mobile Bay area. However, as I noted in another thread, the models significantly underestimated Cindy's strength as it made landfall, and I believe that Cindy's impact on the synoptic pattern along the gulf coast could be crucial in the track of Dennis (will Cindy weaken the ridge more than previously forecast, thus adjusting the track farther east? It remains to be seen in the next few model runs as they (hopefully) initialize Cindy at its true strength.)

Here's the link to the 108 hour GEM 4 Panel:

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north_america_zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC_012_108.jpg

FYI - here's the link to the main page of the GEM's other images:

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html

*Note* For what it's worth - the 0Z run is just a shade WEST of the previous (12Z) run.

Mike

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[Hurricaneman]

CMC is more food for thought

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The cmc pretty much forecasted Ivan perfectly so pay closely to it.

[LilNoles2005]

Mike, do you think that the eastward shifts in the latest model runs for the GFDL and UKMET are due to the reason(s) you mentioned in your post? I hope that whatever weakness these models are forecasting does not develop, because these models don't look good for us.

Also, XLee or Drew Weatherford?

Thanks and GO NOLES.

[WeatherNole]

Mike, do you think that the eastward shifts in the latest model runs for the GFDL and UKMET are due to the reason(s) you mentioned in your post? I hope that whatever weakness these models are forecasting does not develop, because these models don't look good for us.

That may be the case, but I'd be more likely to believe it if the NEXT run of the models continues to show the trend. Don't forget that the models started out with Ivan in SW Fla, then kept trending westward over and over again. I'll feel more confident once inside 72 hours.

Also, XLee or Drew Weatherford?

Hmmmmmm. XLee has - without a doubt - the most potential, but he may have a longer learning curve. Drew, in my opinion, fits the typical prototype QB that could play at the next level. If J. Bowden does his job, we'll be ok with either one. At this stage, I think I'd rather take a few lumps early and go with XLee. (I also think that if XLee becomes the definite starter, Drew will likely transfer. There's no way a guy with that talent would or should ride the bench. Just my humble opinion.

Go NOLES!

A curse on Dennis! Leave us alone!

Mike

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[WeatherEmperor]

You are right Mike. The GFDL and UKMET had an eastward shift but I would rather wait for some more trending before I go with it.

<RICKY>

[tampastorm]

Remember Ivan kept shifting west every run. So Dennis shifting East each run, considering it is so far away would not be a suprise at all.

[weatherSnoop]

The models had been shifting west since Monday, now coming back east. Too many variables for the 96+ range to deal with

[WeatherEmperor]

Models are becoming slightly more divergent late in the period. Scroll down to TD4. Check it out.

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

<RICKY>

[Wnghs2007]

Models are becoming slightly more divergent late in the period. Scroll down to TD4. Check it out.

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

<RICKY>

Keep in mind the BAM models are derived from the GFS so its only Natural they follow the GFS on its New Orleans forecast.

[Brent]

Hmmmmm...

Oh and Sunday Morning??? That's a whole day faster than the NHC.

[Rainband]

If they continue to shift east then it will be a trend. It's normal for the models to flip flop when weak steering currents are thrown into the forecast. They are trying to figure out what to make of them. When they do I think we will know more

[Brent]

If they continue to shift east then it will be a trend. It's normal for the models to flip flop when weak steering currents are thrown into the forecast. They are trying to figure out what to make of them. When they do I think we will know more

Good point.

I think the only thing that is certain is someone along the Gulf Coast, be it the Florida Peninsula or Louisiana is going to have to deal with it.

[Rainband]

If they continue to shift east then it will be a trend. It's normal for the models to flip flop when weak steering currents are thrown into the forecast. They are trying to figure out what to make of them. When they do I think we will know more

Good point.

I think the only thing that is certain is someone along the Gulf Coast, be it the Florida Peninsula or Louisiana is going to have to deal with it.

Not enough java yet I meant what the UL disturbance up north does to the high. Not weak but uncertain.

[otowntiger]

Like I said yesterday- so many people were talking about the trend west and I think that even a days worth of trends this far out don't have any more significance than do a single shift from one run to another. Now when the storm is less than two days away, trends will be significant. But more importantly trends in the actual movement at that point will be most significant.

[jlauderdal]

First things first - while the GEM (Canadian model) did fairly well with Cindy, and performed ok last year, we're still talking about a 108 hour forecast, so don't go nuts just yet.

NOW - that being said, the new GEM shows a Sunday morning landfall in the Pensacola/Mobile Bay area. However, as I noted in another thread, the models significantly underestimated Cindy's strength as it made landfall, and I believe that Cindy's impact on the synoptic pattern along the gulf coast could be crucial in the track of Dennis (will Cindy weaken the ridge more than previously forecast, thus adjusting the track farther east? It remains to be seen in the next few model runs as they (hopefully) initialize Cindy at its true strength.)

Here's the link to the 108 hour GEM 4 Panel:

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north_america_zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC_012_108.jpg

FYI - here's the link to the main page of the GEM's other images:

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html

*Note* For what it's worth - the 0Z run is just a shade WEST of the previous (12Z) run.

Mike

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seems very fast to me considering dennis is forecast to slow down in the SE gulf. who knows about track but as far as i am concerned the slower he goes the farther east he makes landfall.