Guidance Envelope...FL/AL Landfall?

#1 Postby **MWatkins** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:12 am

Real quick update...the 0Z UKMET...CMC...and NOGAPS still are calling for a Fl Panhandle landfall from a significant hurricane Dennis in 5 to 6 days.

Although the 0z GFS has shifted west fom the 12Z run....and I am sure the GFDL will follow along...the overall steering picture hasn't changed much. Initally..this appears to be a EC Gulf problem with some considerable uncertanity with both a EC trough and Cindy.

As a side note...Dennis is sure getting his act together tonight.

Again...I ask..is this Early July or late August?

MW

Hurricaneman · #2 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:14 am

Early July acting like late august

#3 Postby **weatherSnoop** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:15 am

That question and is it Monday or Tuesday! What a day

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #4 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:15 am

If this keeps up we can forget about 1995 but 1933 might be in trouble. Lets hope if that happens that we see a very strong fish season. With only tropical storm landfalls if can be.

Wnghs2007 · #5 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:16 am

MWatkins wrote:Real quick update...the 0Z UKMET...CMC...and NOGAPS still are calling for a Fl Panhandle landfall from a significant hurricane Dennis in 5 to 6 days.

Although the 0z GFS has shifted west fom the 12Z run....and I am sure the GFDL will follow along...the overall steering picture hasn't changed much. Initally..this appears to be a EC Gulf problem with some considerable uncertanity with both a EC trough and Cindy.

As a side note...Dennis is sure getting his act together tonight.

Again...I ask..is this Early July or late August?

MW

Well the GFS actually shifted east from its 18 z run. Which had landfall at the TX/LA Border. Now its over New Orleans

#6 Postby **ericinmia** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:16 am

MIke what do you think about the coriolis effect and Dennis.

I'm starting to worry that when this ridge "cracks" and Dennis begins to move north, he may be cat3+ which would have a much different scenario then these models that are not intializing or predicting this to occur.
-Eric

#7 Postby **MWatkins** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:33 am

Wow...the GFDL is actually significantly east of the previous run...

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05070605

By about 120 nautical miles in 108 hours.

Previous run:

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05070523

Going to bed now...was waiting for the GFDL.

Going to be an interesting few days ahead.

MW

LilNoles2005 · #8 Postby **LilNoles2005** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:39 am

Good thing that the latest GFDL is 108 hours out and not likely to happen, because that would be absolutely disasterous for my neck of the woods. That is a significant shift.

jkt21787 · #9 Postby **jkt21787** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:41 am

LilNoles2005 wrote:Good thing that the latest GFDL is 108 hours out and not likely to happen, because that would be absolutely disasterous for my neck of the woods. That is a significant shift.

While its far out, anything could happen at this stage.

Consider yourself still at potential risk until we're much closer with this storm. It could go anywhere.

Hurricaneman · #10 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:43 am

Just keep an eye out

#11 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:45 am

I noticed the shift from the GFDL as well, Mike. Im gonna stay up a bit longer and wait for the UKMET and the others to update to see if they will follow the GFDL or not.

<RICKY>

Hurricaneman · #12 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:46 am

That is a big shift, this could be bad for the panhandle

BUD · #13 Postby **BUD** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:47 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:I noticed the shift from the GFDL as well, Mike. Im gonna stay up a bit longer and wait for the UKMET and the others to update to see if they will follow the GFDL or not.

<RICKY>

What time do the new models come out???

#14 Postby **KBBOCA** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:47 am

For those of us who are geographically challenged at this hour of the morning, can someone translate the lat/long points of the GFDL landfall into a rough location? (and any suggestions as to a good website to enter lat/long and come up with a map would be great) thanks.

rsdoug1981 · #15 Postby **rsdoug1981** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:49 am

KBBOCA wrote:For those of us who are geographically challenged at this hour of the morning, can someone translate the lat/long points of the GFDL landfall into a rough location? (and any suggestions as to a good website to enter lat/long and come up with a map would be great) thanks.

FL. panhandle

#16 Postby **KBBOCA** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:51 am

Thanks, that's what I was guessing, but didn't trust my judgment when I'm so sleepy!

jkt21787 · #17 Postby **jkt21787** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:52 am

Here's the updated graphic:

Wnghs2007 · #18 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:52 am

If it shows an old image please refresh, but the new GFDL is up on that model map. Signifigantly Further East.

LilNoles2005 · #19 Postby **LilNoles2005** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:52 am

The GFDL's current projected landfall (again, I reiterate that this is 108 hours out...) is roughly between Apalachicola and St. Marks.

LilNoles2005 · #20 Postby **LilNoles2005** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:55 am

judging by the graphic posted by jkt21787, it appears that UKMET has shifted eastward quite a bit, as well.

Guidance Envelope...FL/AL Landfall?

Guidance Envelope...FL/AL Landfall?

Re: Guidance Envelope...FL/AL Landfall?

wow...

Re: wow...

I'll give a rough...

well..

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