Will there be sheer to weaken Dennis in the gulf?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
logybogy

Will there be sheer to weaken Dennis in the gulf?

#1 Postby logybogy » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:24 am

What's stopping Dennis from hitting Cuba as a Cat 3 and then becoming a Cat 4 or 5 in the gulf?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#2 Postby Normandy » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:25 am

i hope shear is there....maybe a helping of dry air.
0 likes   
Top
slowjoe
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 80
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 3:25 pm
Location: Gainesville, FL

#3 Postby slowjoe » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:25 am

Cuba itself...the mountains weaken it then it takes time to recover.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7404
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

#4 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:26 am

I hope there is shear and dry air for you people along the gulf coast
0 likes   
Top
logybogy

#5 Postby logybogy » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:26 am

It won't weaken much at all if it passes Cuba in the skinny part over or west of Havana.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7404
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

#6 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:27 am

Good point
0 likes   
Top
jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#7 Postby jkt21787 » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:27 am

slowjoe wrote:Cuba itself...the mountains weaken it then it takes time to recover.

its currently expected to pass over western parts of Cuba which is much flatter and will not weaken the storm significantly if at all. Charley from last year is an example of this.
0 likes   
Top
logybogy

#8 Postby logybogy » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 am

I'm just curious to know if the professional mets have an idea what the dry air/shear environment will be when Dennis enters the gulf.

That's huge. It'll be the difference between whether we see a Cat 1/2 or a 3/4/5.
0 likes   
Top
DoctorHurricane2003

#9 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:38 am

Cuba will give Dennis a pause in strengthening, but other than that it appears right now nothing is going to keep it from intensifying.....even in the GOM.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#10 Postby Normandy » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:38 am

Well.....

thats not good.
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#11 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:39 am

if there's going to be shear, its likely to be in the caribbean and during the next 36 hours.

The center is on the very western edge of the convection, a sign of some shear over the system
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7404
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

#12 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:42 am

The is some light SW shear
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 669 guests