00z NAM shifts eastward on Dennis

[Vortex]

Guidance from 12z/18z today had Dennis near the Yucatan channel. The 00z Nam just out has shifted considerably to the NE of its prior 2 runs placing Dennis near the Keys. Much has to do with the weakness along the east coast. We shall See..


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

[scogor]

Verytinteresting...The NBC affiliate in Tampa's VIPIR (that predicted Charley's turn into Charlotte County) has Dennis to the east of where most of the models have converged and much closer to the west coast of Florida than the "spaghetti models". I wonder if VIPIR is picking up a weakness in the ridge?

[jax]

there seems to be much more data suggesting a
Noth central gulf storm though.... wouldn't you think?

[jdray]

That is the number one question.

How much will Cindy affect Dennis and will the high pressure stand up enough to protect Florida.....

[Stratusxpeye]

Yup just watched Steve Jerve on Channel 8 here in Tampa Bay. Viper was dead on with ivan and charley even b4 the nhc went public with it. So who knows. A lot of talk now about trends to the east. Only time will tell for sure. VIPIR Has it sitting just miles of naples the ne edge of it not the eye. We shal see.

[rsdoug1981]

Guidance from 12z/18z today had Dennis near the Yucatan channel. The 00z Nam just out has shifted considerably to the NE of its prior 2 runs placing Dennis near the Keys. Much has to do with the weakness along the east coast. We shall See..


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

I would pay far more attention to the GFS which is coming out now. The Nam usually doesn't jump on the right bandwagon until just prior to the landfall of tropical systems. FWIW, the GFS appears to be farther south through 36 hours and is looking far a head-on collision with Jamaica.

[Wnghs2007]

It misses Jamaica to the North at 42 hours and here is it at 54 hours. Bearing down on Cuba

[Wnghs2007]

At 66 hrs nearing landfall with Cuba...

[rsdoug1981]

Wnghs2007,

Check the 36 hr frame. The center of the low is directly over Jamaica.

[Wnghs2007]

78 hours... Inland over North Cuba or emerging into the Gulf of Mexico its hard to tell..

[Wnghs2007]

90 hours....in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico...NNE of the Yucatan Channel

[Wnghs2007]

108 hours--- in the east-central gulf of Mexico and looking at a heading that is taking him towards the Louisiana or Mississippi Coast line. Almost straight at New Orleans.

[Scott_inVA]

Good Lord, folks!

Please don't use the NAM/Eta for TCs well out over water. I run it on the model maps sometimes but never look at it until landfall and for inland tracking.

BTW, I'm reviewing the putrid performance of Globals for Cindy and it again looks like the GFS did the best job. Pains me to say it but inside 60 hours it did okay.

Scott

[AL Chili Pepper]

Ouch! I think we can go ahead a retire Dennis.

[Wnghs2007]

120 hours--- Dennis is nearing landfall in Southeast Louisiana or Mississippi. New Orleans catastrophe realized if this run comes true...

[AL Chili Pepper]

120 hours--- Dennis is nearing landfall in Southeast Louisiana or Mississippi. New Orleans catastrophe realized if this run comes true...

Or both.

[WeatherNole]

Good Lord, folks!

Please don't use the NAM/Eta for TCs well out over water. I run it on the model maps sometimes but never look at it until landfall and for inland tracking.

BTW, I'm reviewing the putrid performance of Globals for Cindy and it again looks like the GFS did the best job. Pains me to say it but inside 60 hours it did okay.

Scott

KEY phrase there is "inside 60 hours".

This is gonna be a looooooooong week.

Mike

--

[rsdoug1981]

The GFS sure has sped things up in this run...

[Wnghs2007]

132 hours--- LANDFALL OVER NEW ORLEANS...MAJOR HURRICANE...EEK

[Wnghs2007]

Interesting to Note that this run of the GFS is much fast and further east than its previous run. So keep that in mind. It may be a fluke or it could be on to something.