a couple models actually have SW FL landfall...

hurricanedude · #1 Postby **hurricanedude** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:59 pm

those who say FL is safe...well...need to have there head examined, FL as well as the entire gulf is not safe until this thing is gone.

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

#2 Postby **ericinmia** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:02 pm

Bad link i think. It has no graphic and the plots are for cindy.

I refreshed it too... ;(
-Eric

hurricanedude · #3 Postby **hurricanedude** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:04 pm

yeah...I noticed that as well....looking for the current link

hurricanedude · #4 Postby **hurricanedude** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:07 pm

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

this is the link, but when i copy and paste it...it does not open the right model plots...OH WELL!!!

#5 Postby **EDR1222** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:07 pm

Actually some of the latest runs turn the storm more westward when it gets into the Gulf of Mexico

http://weather.net-waves.com/td04.php

hurricanefloyd5 · #6 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:08 pm

im very very concerned about this storm system because of what was in the 5 p.m. Discussion and they said "Model guidance is in tight agreement on this general
motion continuing for about the next three days...with the primary
steering mechanism being the subtropical ridge currently centered
over the northwestern Bahamas. Beyond that time...a weakness in the
ridge is anticipated to develop...as a mid/upper level trough
sharpens over the eastern United States. This should induce a
gradual decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the northwest
late in the forecast period."

#7 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:10 pm

it's all down to timing...just remember that when Charley and Ivan were in the same position as Dennis, things changed quite a bit once they got closer to landfall :eek:

#8 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:12 pm

boca_chris wrote:it's all down to timing...just remember that when Charley and Ivan were in the same position as Dennis, things changed quite a bit once they got closer to landfall

Yeah...the track kept trending WEST (kinda like now) :-)

#9 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:13 pm

Yeah...the track kept trending WEST (kinda like now)

Yes for Ivan but for Charley it made a NE hook that was not seen until it got closer to landfall :eek:

rsdoug1981 · #10 Postby **rsdoug1981** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:15 pm

Don't forget...

Charley's sharp right turn in the Gulf was due to an unusually strong August cold front. I don't really see any of those on the horizon...

#11 Postby **Jevo** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:17 pm

looks like motion has been constant wnw most iof the day from plots

5am fix 12.6 64.4
5pm fix 14.2 68.3

CFL · #12 Postby **CFL** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:30 pm

rsdoug1981 wrote:Don't forget...

Charley's sharp right turn in the Gulf was due to an unusually strong August cold front. I don't really see any of those on the horizon...

That is so true! I remember our local met out of Pensacola actually showing Charley heading in our general direction before that cold front came in. And that front was a powerful one - enough to make you grab a sweater in the morning. It felt like an early autumn!

Anonymous · #13 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:37 pm

Dennis is not going anywhere, except for the mid-Louisiana coast, over to Destin Fl. I say everyone else is going to be out of the woods. Come back and read this prediction on Monday July 11th.

#14 Postby **Jevo** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:54 pm

Oddly enough Max Mayfield said the MM5 Model was one of the best models they had during the season last year at the Florida govenor's hurricane conference.

#15 Postby **Canelaw99** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 10:05 pm

Anyone check out the latest UKMET? It's the model most recently run and plotted on the maps: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200504_model.html

The curve is starting to appear....

edited to put in proper model name - my bad :wink:

rsdoug1981 · #16 Postby **rsdoug1981** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 10:08 pm

Canelaw99 wrote:Anyone check out the latest BAMM? It's the model most recently run and plotted on the maps: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200504_model.html

The curve is starting to appear....

To where?

Website · #17 Postby **Brent** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 10:09 pm

Show me what's going to turn it that way because I don't see it...

#18 Postby **Canelaw99** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 10:16 pm

Brent wrote:Show me what's going to turn it that way because I don't see it...

Your guess is as good as mine LOL I'm presuming it's registering the break that Cindy will supposedly make....

Any mets out there that can explain what the model is seeing???

a couple models actually have SW FL landfall...

a couple models actually have SW FL landfall...

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