Tropical Storm Dennis

#161 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:11 pm

What a tremendous amount of agreement among the models!

CYCLONE MIKE · #162 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:25 pm

Wow, like I said in an earlier thread amazing how the similarities are between Isidore/Cindy and Lili/and the potential current forecast and strength of Dennis headed straight for southern LA.

#163 Postby **abajan** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:30 pm

Dennis is certainly packing a punch. Tortola had wind gusts of 40 - 50 mph earlier: http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/bvi.shtml

#164 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:31 pm

I know it's early, but I don't like the agreement on the forecast models, and I don't like the direction they're pointed in.

#165 Postby **TSmith274** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:33 pm

LAwxrgal wrote:I know it's early, but I don't like the agreement on the forecast models, and I don't like the direction they're pointed in.

This sucks. I told you people 3 months ago. I build my camp in Buras, and here come the storms. I swear, I have the worst luck.

#166 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:30 pm

DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005
0300Z WED JUL 06 2005

AT 11 PM EDT...0000Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
AND PORT-AU-PRINCE WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 69.2W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 69.2W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 68.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.8N 71.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.4N 74.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.8N 76.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 55SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.1N 78.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 30SW 55NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.4N 82.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 85SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 24.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 27.0N 86.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 69.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

#167 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:34 pm

Frederic II

Stratosphere747 · #168 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:35 pm

Seems like another shift to the south and west?

Website · #169 Postby **Brent** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:36 pm

It was just a very slight shift if there was one...

Otherwise, :eek:

Normandy · #170 Postby **Normandy** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:38 pm

They STILL have it going north of Jamaica???

#171 Postby **deltadog03** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:39 pm

i just don't see it going north of jamica....that is not south and west enough...imo

Stratosphere747 · #172 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:40 pm

True Brent..

Still seems like there is a trend..

Be interesting to see how the high dipping down from the Great Lakes may effect Dennis...

CFL · #173 Postby **CFL** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:41 pm

dhweather wrote:Frederic II

My thoughts exactly.

CFL · #174 Postby **CFL** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:42 pm

Normandy wrote:They STILL have it going north of Jamaica???

I believe Ivan was forecasted to do the same and wound up taking the Yucatan channel.

#175 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:42 pm

WTNT34 KNHC 060241
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005

...DENNIS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...NEW HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED...

AT 11 PM EDT...0000Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
AND PORT-AU-PRINCE WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CUBA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST OR ABOUT
345 MILES... 555 KM... SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
555 MILES... 895 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...14.6 N... 69.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

Scorpion · #176 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:43 pm

Dennis is moving much faster than Ivan.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #177 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:44 pm

Much weaker to.

Normandy · #178 Postby **Normandy** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:45 pm

Scorpion wrote:Dennis is moving much faster than Ivan.

Well if thats the case it would lead me to believe it has less of a chance of passing north of Jamaica.....Oh well i guess well see.

Stratosphere747 · #179 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:45 pm

Luis....Need to change the name back to Dennis...

#180 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:46 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:Luis....Need to change the name back to Dennis...

Yep done.

Tropical Storm Dennis

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