Tropical Storm Dennis

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cycloneye
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#141 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:44 pm

Grafic updated now with the 00:21z run.Wow look at how they are clustred now.
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#142 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:44 pm

JPmia wrote:FInally some disagreement in the models...hmm.


Disagreement????? I would say that they agreeing almost in everything.
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#143 Postby chris_fit » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:45 pm

Interesting West jog at the end :?: :?:
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#144 Postby wx247 » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:45 pm

I don't belive the Extrap. This thing is moving almost due west... maybe WNW... the extrap is NW.
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#145 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:45 pm

JPmia wrote:FInally some disagreement in the models...hmm.


Is very amazing the agreement of the models that far out.
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#146 Postby deltadog03 » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:46 pm

I agree this is moving almost due west....not WNW
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#147 Postby Normandy » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:47 pm

Its been moving west all day, some just did not want to listen.
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#148 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:48 pm

My poor relatives in Havana.
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#149 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:48 pm

HURAKAN wrote:My poor relatives in Havana.


Oh yes.
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#150 Postby JPmia » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:48 pm

not at the end of run...it appears that some push more west then..i should of said that too.
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#151 Postby gkrangers » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:50 pm

JPmia wrote:not at the end of run...it appears that some push more west then..i should of said that too.
Yeah, but thats still VERY close guidance. The next 24 hours will be interesting. We know the models all take it into the SE GOM. But now they will start to show further than that...and they might diverge at that point.
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#152 Postby Brent » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:50 pm

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

108 kt is a strong Category Three!!! :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#153 Postby Air Force Met » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:50 pm

deltadog03 wrote:I agree this is moving almost due west....not WNW


Some of us have been saying that...and the fact the models were initialized with 295 as a heading means they will probably be too far right.

You can see the W movement on Aruban radar. And if you add the west movement that was there earlier...and the LLC that was on vis...it's been moving west since 19z.

http://www.weather.an/sat_img/radar.asp#

Pretty darn clear now using the radar and satellite.
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#154 Postby Rainband » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:53 pm

It may hit Mexico. That would be good news for all of us :D
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#155 Postby Normandy » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:53 pm

Well except those in Mexico :wink:
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#156 Postby corpusbreeze » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:54 pm

wx247 wrote:I don't belive the Extrap. This thing is moving almost due west... maybe WNW... the extrap is NW.
You got that right. The models are already off the mark.
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#157 Postby Normandy » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:55 pm

If it keeps westward for another couple of hours itll have to start booking it NW to pass north of Jamaica....
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#158 Postby Scorpion » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:55 pm

Its not going into Mexico. This thing looks to have a track east of Ivan's.
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#159 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:55 pm

Brent wrote::eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

108 kt is a strong Category Three!!! :eek: :eek: :eek:


125 mph.
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#160 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:56 pm

cycloneye wrote: TROPICAL STORM DENNIS (AL042005) ON 20050706 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050706 0000 050706 1200 050707 0000 050707 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.3N 68.5W 15.4N 70.9W 16.5N 73.1W 17.6N 75.3W
BAMM 14.3N 68.5W 15.5N 70.9W 16.8N 73.1W 18.0N 75.3W
A98E 14.3N 68.5W 15.5N 70.9W 16.6N 73.2W 17.8N 75.2W
LBAR 14.3N 68.5W 15.5N 71.2W 16.8N 73.8W 18.1N 76.4W
SHIP 45KTS 57KTS 71KTS 81KTS
DSHP 45KTS 57KTS 71KTS 81KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050708 0000 050709 0000 050710 0000 050711 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.7N 77.3W 20.5N 80.9W 22.5N 83.8W 25.1N 87.3W
BAMM 19.3N 77.3W 21.6N 81.3W 23.8N 85.0W 25.6N 89.0W
A98E 19.4N 77.1W 21.8N 81.4W 24.7N 84.8W 27.9N 87.5W
LBAR 19.4N 79.0W 22.2N 83.0W 25.1N 85.4W 25.6N 88.2W
SHIP 91KTS 105KTS 108KTS 101KTS
DSHP 91KTS 105KTS 101KTS 95KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.3N LONCUR = 68.5W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 13.1N LONM12 = 65.8W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 12.2N LONM24 = 62.3W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 50NM


Ship has it now at 108 kts.

Image

Refresh the grafic to see the 00:00 run.
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