Tropical Storm Dennis

[HouTXmetro]

Now youve done it......jinxed..

Haha, I'll take my chances. Sucks to be in the North Central Gulf though.

[JTD]

the past hour or two, Dennis has managed to build some more impressive convection over his LLC. That's been a missing factor for most of today in terms of strengthening. If this persists, Dennis could strengthen faster than anticipated.

Can we go in this direction a bit more? How does Dennis look to the rest of you as well.

Weatherboy, thanks for this post. I've been looking for analysis of Dennis's strength so far.

[dwg71]

Allison should have kept you busy for awhile....our time will come. But not with Dennis...

[loon]

bah, I live on the southside, we got a bit of ran and flooding too, but the northeast really got it on that one. It was eventful however, I'll give her that much. However that was years ago now...we need a refresher..


=]

[Brent]

Can we go in this direction a bit more? How does Dennis look to the rest of you as well.

To me... it looks stronger(or certainly better) than Cindy. I believe recon will find winds quite a bit higher than 40 mph when they get there later.

Might be a hurricane before tomorrow is over.

[Normandy]

Yea its organizing fairly well....might be a hurricane when recon gets in there (assuming the first mission is tom).

[cycloneye]

The central dense overcast is consolidating for the first time meaning that the storm is organizaning more indicating stenghening.Recon wil tell the full story to us later this evening.

[cycloneye]

Advisory shortly.

[Derek Ortt]

recon says we barely have a tropical cyclone (which I cannot figure out at all)

still should see RI tonight, but I'd like to see the pressure drop before comitting to significant intensification

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 052350
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005

...DENNIS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFEFCT FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
AND PORT-AU-PRINCE WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. ALSO...THE GOVERNMENT OF
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WILL LIKELY ISSUE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.5 WEST OR ABOUT
385 MILES... 625 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...14.3 N... 68.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[chris_fit]

Slowed down 4mph, somewhat siginficant I would think.

[dhweather]

Our local met - Mike Reader, WLOX, raised Dennis as a point of concern for us on Monday/Tuesday. Uncharasteric of him this far in advance.

[TampaFl]

Slowed down 4mph, somewhat siginficant I would think.

More time to strengthen and possible change in direction somewhat?


Robert

[Hurrilurker]

I see 3 frames in a row now that look like an eye is forming (as of 8 pm ET) ... I'm going to be surprised if this isn't classified as a minimal hurricane tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

05/2345 UTC 14.2N 68.6W T3.0/3.0 DENNIS -- Atlantic Ocean


Sat estimates are moving up tonight meaning consolidation is taking place with a well formed CDO.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't understand it my self derek. It looks like it has a really well defined LLC/Cdo...Outflow pattern. Weird.

[Air Force Met]

pretty clear which way it is moving looking at the radar from Aruba...

http://www.weather.an/sat_img/radar.asp#

[Normandy]

Nearly due west.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM DENNIS (AL042005) ON 20050706 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050706 0000 050706 1200 050707 0000 050707 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.3N 68.5W 15.4N 70.9W 16.5N 73.1W 17.6N 75.3W
BAMM 14.3N 68.5W 15.5N 70.9W 16.8N 73.1W 18.0N 75.3W
A98E 14.3N 68.5W 15.5N 70.9W 16.6N 73.2W 17.8N 75.2W
LBAR 14.3N 68.5W 15.5N 71.2W 16.8N 73.8W 18.1N 76.4W
SHIP 45KTS 57KTS 71KTS 81KTS
DSHP 45KTS 57KTS 71KTS 81KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050708 0000 050709 0000 050710 0000 050711 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.7N 77.3W 20.5N 80.9W 22.5N 83.8W 25.1N 87.3W
BAMM 19.3N 77.3W 21.6N 81.3W 23.8N 85.0W 25.6N 89.0W
A98E 19.4N 77.1W 21.8N 81.4W 24.7N 84.8W 27.9N 87.5W
LBAR 19.4N 79.0W 22.2N 83.0W 25.1N 85.4W 25.6N 88.2W
SHIP 91KTS 105KTS 108KTS 101KTS
DSHP 91KTS 105KTS 101KTS 95KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.3N LONCUR = 68.5W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 13.1N LONM12 = 65.8W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 12.2N LONM24 = 62.3W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 50NM


Ship has it now at 108 kts.



Refresh the grafic to see the 00:00 run.

[JPmia]

FInally some disagreement in the models...hmm.