DENNIS MAJOR THREAT NEW ORLEANS to galveston

[Normandy]

we will certainly find out. if it turns north, it will lose its favorable conditions and would pass over high mountains, which would be good

Well its expected to turn Northwestward in the GOM...

[Stratosphere747]

we will certainly find out. if it turns north, it will lose its favorable conditions and would pass over high mountains, which would be good

Thanks...I guess, you don't provide any real reasoning on why those between NO and Houston/Galveston should feel "omnious"

Scott

[deltadog03]

I agree with the topic...I am tending to believe that it will be a somewhere near TX/LA coast...then head NW

[Derecho]

Little odd that nobody seems to be talking about there not appearing to be as much as one millimeter of motion north of due west for Dennis for hours now.....

It's been consistently running well south of the models...with the models being dragged along.

18Z GFS now has Dennis hitting Texas; you'll likely see a major left shift of the GFDL at 0Z.

It's not outside of the realm of possibility for Dennis to miss the US entirely.

[chris_fit]

18Z GFS now has Dennis hitting Texas; you'll likely see a major left shift of the GFDL at 0Z.
.

Shifted Right actually.

[deltadog03]

Little odd that nobody seems to be talking about there not appearing to be as much as one millimeter of motion north of due west for Dennis for hours now.....

It's been consistently running well south of the models...with the models being dragged along.

18Z GFS now has Dennis hitting Texas; you'll likely see a major left shift of the GFDL at 0Z.

It's not outside of the realm of possibility for Dennis to miss the US entirely.

I agree Derecho....I have been noticing that all day...not a hint of northward movement...

[Opal storm]

It's slowed down by 4mph,expect a NW turn soon.

[Derecho]

18Z GFS now has Dennis hitting Texas; you'll likely see a major left shift of the GFDL at 0Z.
.

Shifted Right actually.

The GFDL shifted Right some from 12Z to 18Z; I'm talking about the future 0Z GFDL.

The GFDL uses the PREVIOUS run of the GFS as the "background"...the 0Z GFDL will use the 18Z GFS for this; the end of the track for Dennis shifted LEFT quite a lot on the 18Z GFS from the 12Z GFS, so you're almost certain to see quite a west shift on the NEXT (0Z) GFDL run.

[deltadog03]

it might...but, they have been saying its moving WNW thats not the case...its almost due west

[chris_fit]

It's slowed down by 4mph,expect a NW turn soon.

Not until Cindy takes a bite of that ridge.

[Canelaw99]

It has moved north, but usually by just a tenth or so of a degree. If you compare the position in the 5pm to the 8pm advisory, it moved north .1 degree, and west .2 I believe it was.

[chris_fit]

18Z GFS now has Dennis hitting Texas; you'll likely see a major left shift of the GFDL at 0Z.
.

Shifted Right actually.

The GFDL shifted Right some from 12Z to 18Z; I'm talking about the future 0Z GFDL.

The GFDL uses the PREVIOUS run of the GFS as the "background"...the 0Z GFDL will use the 18Z GFS for this; the end of the track for Dennis shifted LEFT quite a lot on the 18Z GFS from the 12Z GFS, so you're almost certain to see quite a west shift on the NEXT (0Z) GFDL run.

Cool info. thanks.

[deltadog03]

It has moved north, but usually by just a tenth or so of a degree. If you compare the position in the 5pm to the 8pm advisory, it moved north .1 degree, and west .2 I believe it was.

yeah your right...I think NHC is saying that its moving more north of that...sorry if i was not clear

[Derecho]

For a variety of actually very good reasons, NHC uses a long-term average for storm motion so they're not constantly changing the reported motion from advisory to advisory, and they're only reporting "real" turns.

It gained .1 degree of lat from 5PM to 8PM, which isn't quite due W, but it's not "full" WNW either.

[deltadog03]

agreed

[Stratosphere747]

Little odd that nobody seems to be talking about there not appearing to be as much as one millimeter of motion north of due west for Dennis for hours now.....

It's been consistently running well south of the models...with the models being dragged along.

18Z GFS now has Dennis hitting Texas; you'll likely see a major left shift of the GFDL at 0Z.

It's not outside of the realm of possibility for Dennis to miss the US entirely.

Derecho, It does seem with the latest advisory that there is some movement WNW...

I only want those in the entire GOM not to get caught up in the models and the blanket statement of some that there is a "specific" point that this may be heading...

I must admit that Dennis could be a concern for those from NO/Tx, but as we have all learned, things can change rapidly...

Scott

[rainstorm]

plenty of reason to be concerned. it looks likely to me it will pass south of jamaica, and even if it does turn nw the ridge will build back in and it will turn more west again. also, if the ridge does build back in, conditions may be close to ideal for intensification.


also, if i could i would blink my eyes and make dennis disappear.

[rainstorm]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=144hr

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/avntc2.cgi?time=2005070518&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=144hr

[Canelaw99]

Yes, but on a different note:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc2.cgi?time=2005070500&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation