DENNIS MAJOR THREAT NEW ORLEANS to galveston

[dwg71]

If its anywhere near Jamaica it wont come to TX, IMO.

[Normandy]

I dont think it will come to Texas unless it clips the yucatan....but point is its going west of the forecasted path already...and models are trending west.

[dwg71]

The center that I see is North of the NHC track somewhere near 14.2 and 67.7.

[Normandy]

Ah i guess we see different centers than...we need recon to find the real one.

[Opal storm]

I HIGHLY doubt a Texas landfall,we all thought Cindy was going to hit Texas and sure enough the track curved back east and now I'm under a T.S warning.The way I see it,Dennis will most likely make landfall somewhere from LA to the Panhandle.
It's already heading WNW and more than likely will take a due north track to the northern Gulf coast once in the Gulf.

Might I add,I don't think we will see a major shift in the track like Cindy,becuase from what I've seen the models are pretty tight with the future track of this storm.

[AL Chili Pepper]

I HIGHLY doubt a Texas landfall,we all thought Cindy was going to hit Texas and sure enough the track curved back east and now I'm under a T.S warning.The way I see it,Dennis will most likely make landfall somewhere from LA to the Panhandle.
It's already heading WNW and more than likely will take a due north track to the northern Gulf coast once in the Gulf.

If it touches the western tip of Cuba, I'll be concerned. Seems like all Cape Verdes type storms that affect this area cross the western tip of Cuba. Georges may have been an exception, but that's the general rule for me.

[gkrangers]

Cindy's track actually did what it was supposed to. Turning northerly.

The problem with Cindy was that the center reformed way far north of the initial position...

[alicia-w]

guess somewhere within the Panama City area to the New Orleans area, but people on the Florida West coast and Northern Gulf should still watch it

where do you think Panama City is exactly. It is on the Northern Gulf Coast.

[ROCK]

I HIGHLY doubt a Texas landfall,we all thought Cindy was going to hit Texas and sure enough the track curved back east and now I'm under a T.S warning.The way I see it,Dennis will most likely make landfall somewhere from LA to the Panhandle.
It's already heading WNW and more than likely will take a due north track to the northern Gulf coast once in the Gulf.

Might I add,I don't think we will see a major shift in the track like Cindy,becuase from what I've seen the models are pretty tight with the future track of this storm.

The only reason TX was not a Cindy event was because the center reformed to the north. The models were correct in a Tx event until the reformation. Currently Dennis is moving more west than NW and models will shift left if it stays on its present course.

[Normandy]

Had Cindy's center not reformed, then it would have hit TX....so unless Dennis's center reforms (which I dont think it will it looks pretty definite now) it should stay on the projected course (or at least somehwere close).

[dwg71]

I HIGHLY doubt a Texas landfall,we all thought Cindy was going to hit Texas and sure enough the track curved back east and now I'm under a T.S warning.The way I see it,Dennis will most likely make landfall somewhere from LA to the Panhandle.
It's already heading WNW and more than likely will take a due north track to the northern Gulf coast once in the Gulf.

Might I add,I don't think we will see a major shift in the track like Cindy,becuase from what I've seen the models are pretty tight with the future track of this storm.

The only reason TX was not a Cindy event was because the center reformed to the north. The models were correct in a Tx event until the reformation. Currently Dennis is moving more west than NW and models
will shift left if it stays on its present course.

I disagree the heading seems to be following NHC track (300 - 305) or even a little east of that. Once they get a fix on center, you will see the end of the "west trend" and it will begin reverting back to the east. I will stick with PCB landfall call as a cat 2.

[Normandy]

Ill say it hits New iberia...same intensity u have.

[Air Force Met]

The center that I see is North of the NHC track somewhere near 14.2 and 67.7.

Now that I can see the actual LLC on a high res loop (it popped out from under the cirrus at about 19Z) and can track the movement...the reason it is north because they placed the center too far south....closer to the mid level center...it's not...it's a little more to the north.

Do a high res loop and from 19Z on you can track the center.
At 1902Z it was at 14.90 / 67.52
At 1945Z it was at 14.93 / 67.81

At 2032Z it was again covered by cirrus due to the burst of convection just to the east.

So at least for the time it has been visible...it's moving at 275.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Opal storm]

I HIGHLY doubt a Texas landfall,we all thought Cindy was going to hit Texas and sure enough the track curved back east and now I'm under a T.S warning.The way I see it,Dennis will most likely make landfall somewhere from LA to the Panhandle.
It's already heading WNW and more than likely will take a due north track to the northern Gulf coast once in the Gulf.

Might I add,I don't think we will see a major shift in the track like Cindy,becuase from what I've seen the models are pretty tight with the future track of this storm.

The only reason TX was not a Cindy event was because the center reformed to the north. The models were correct in a Tx event until the reformation. Currently Dennis is moving more west than NW and models will shift left if it stays on its present course.

Dennis is right on track with moving WNW,it will soon take a NW turn.The models may move a little more to the left,but not towards Texas.

[rainstorm]

very ominous. huge ridge=more west movement

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=144hr

[loon]

Man o man he is looking good in the last few IR frames...

[Normandy]

Yea Dennis is intensifying.

[Stratosphere747]

very ominous. huge ridge=more west movement

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=144hr

RS....You only post this one type of model, and use words like "ominous"..

After last season, so many coastal residents are on edge, including the Houston area folks, which so many here have posted..

I can only ask that you don't incite in a sense, and provide some hard-core reasoning on why those between NO and Galveston/Houston should feel "ominous" about Dennis...

Scott

[tronbunny]

very ominous. huge ridge=more west movement

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=144hr

I won't disagree with your basic logic...
but the health of that ridge may be an issue.

to quote the 5pmEDT discussion from NHC:

TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005
<snip>
WITH INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 290/17. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL MOTION CONTINUING FOR ABOUT THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM BEING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. BEYOND THAT TIME...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP...AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ALONG BUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.

It appears that "magical" ridge is one of the major players in all CONUS strikes.

[rainstorm]

we will certainly find out. if it turns north, it will lose its favorable conditions and would pass over high mountains, which would be good