Aruba Radar

#21 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 4:54 pm

Your not...I think the whole thing is for continuity. If you place the center too far south...then it would look like a 295 movement...but you could clearly see the LLC in high res vis for almost an hour today and it was not moving at 295. I plotted the points on a FEMA program I have and it came out to ~275. Also...you can see it on the radar moving more W. The distance and bearing match the coordinates I got off the sat...and so the movement wasn't just something that happened for that hour it was visible.

The NHC has done it before on storms...especially when the center is not certain...and that is why they put estimated center and estimated direction in the discussion.

#22 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 4:56 pm

Recon will have the real answer to all the questions about the center for sure later tonight.

Normandy · #23 Postby **Normandy** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 4:56 pm

So what are your thoughts on the westerly movement? Should it turn more NW like the NHC track suggests?

#24 Postby **Canelaw99** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 4:57 pm

So, if the NHC has it set too far south, what might that do to the potential track? It would shift the whole cone north and put TX less in the picture and FL more in it, yes? Just interested to see what they might do after recon sets a center, and interested in the opinions

Derek Ortt · #25 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 4:57 pm

this has been moving at 295 today based upon center fixes. However, some of this northward motion has been due to the center consolidating farther north of the previous positions

#26 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 4:58 pm

http://www.weather.an/sat_img/radar.asp#

Here is the radar from Aruba.However this radar does not update for a few hours.This is around 3 hours old.

#27 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 4:59 pm

Normandy wrote:So what are your thoughts on the westerly movement? Should it turn more NW like the NHC track suggests?

Yes. But I believe it will do it a little later...like around Jamaica. The track looks good...but is probably a little too far east early on.

#28 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 5:03 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:this has been moving at 295 today based upon center fixes. However, some of this northward motion has been due to the center consolidating farther north of the previous positions

And that's the problem with the motion...knowing if your fixes are right. The LLC was clearly visible at about 19-20z and it was near 14.8-14.9 which was 2 hours before advisory time. Using the radar...it looks to be about 14.7-14.8. So...until the exact center is known...the estimated motion is suspect.

I can understand them, however, keeping continuity and not jumping the center northward. I think it is a matter of them nudging it up to meet what the data is showing.

That's why we need a beehive of quikscats up there (with better resolution of course). Hey...a met can dream...can't he?

:-)

#29 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 5:03 pm

IF the radar in Aruba works like thier justice system, well, it's of
no value. :lol:

Website · #30 Postby **Brent** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 5:06 pm

dhweather wrote:IF the radar in Aruba works like thier justice system, well, it's of
no value.

#31 Postby **tracyswfla** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 5:07 pm

Brent wrote:
dhweather wrote:IF the radar in Aruba works like thier justice system, well, it's of
no value.

#32 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 5:07 pm

Ok folks let's kill that please and return to the topic of thread and that is the radar.

#33 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 5:59 pm

cycloneye wrote:Ok folks let's kill that please and return to the topic of thread and that is the radar.

Aw, come on Luis, that was funny! :lol:

But yes, seriously, we just had another tornado warning issued for
Hancock County (where I live) - Law Enforcement reported a funnel
cloud "growing in size" over the Bay St. Louis post office headed
towards Diamondhead!!!

:eek:

#34 Postby **loon** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:01 pm

dhweather wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Ok folks let's kill that please and return to the topic of thread and that is the radar.

Aw, come on Luis, that was funny!

But yes, seriously, we just had another tornado warning issued for
Hancock County (where I live) - Law Enforcement reported a funnel
cloud "growing in size" over the Bay St. Louis post office headed
towards Diamondhead!!!

If you think about it, Luis kinda made a funny on his own, while all the while giving off the good guy mod/met seriousness....very sly sir, very sly

#35 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm

Recon placed the center at 14 deg 10 min north, 68 deg 05 min west at 22Z (see vortex below). Now I think I see what you may be incorrectly identifying as the center. Shortly after the following satellite image was taken, the real center (which is easily visible on these high-res shots) was obscured by cirrus. These cirrus clouds extended to the northwest and cut across an arc of clouds there, making it look like an eye.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/dennis10.gif">

URNT12 KNHC 052155
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 05/2056Z
B. 14 DEG 10 MIN N
68 DEG 05 MIN W
C. NA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 017 DEG 38 KT
G. 241 DEG 19 NM
H. 1005 MB
I. 07 C/ 3504 M
J. 08 C/ 3516 M
K. 09 C/ NA
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 123/7
0. 1/ 7 NM
P. NOAA3 WX04A DENNIS OB XX
MAX FLT LVL WIND 39 KT W QUAD AT 05/2048Z

#36 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:21 pm

Here's an image right before sunset. You can clearly see the center reappearing between two convective bursts along about 14.1N.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/dennis11.gif">

Normandy · #37 Postby **Normandy** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:24 pm

So if thats your center postioning, then this storm has moved nearly westward (some WNW) all day.

#38 Postby **loon** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:35 pm

Normandy wrote:So if thats your center postioning, then this storm has moved nearly westward (some WNW) all day.

Which AFM has been correctly harping on all day...good work AFM

Normandy · #39 Postby **Normandy** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:38 pm

Which AFM has been correctly harping on all day...good work AFM

Indeed...guess i wasnt crazy after all.

The_Cycloman_PR · #40 Postby **The_Cycloman_PR** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:02 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Hyperstorm wrote:Cycloneye, that radar loop from Aruba is a few hours old already. The latest image they have is from 23:30 GMT OR 7:30 AST. The area of showers you see on the far right of the image moving directly west is a band of showers that was WAY ahead of the depression and is now dissipating.

The depression is still way east of that radar and is moving (according to latest satellite images) WNW...

Yes I see it as old and not the depression, I found this site and posted it rapidly.But when the system moves thru it can be seen.

Actually, it was I who discovered the radar site and posted it on my website and Cycloneye took it from there. It's true. They don't update it very often but they do it between couples of hours during day and nights, so check it out often and you'll get it. Sorry about the inconvenience.

Cycloman

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