Excellent model agreement this far out for Dennis

[ALhurricane]

The latest model runs have a bunch of significance.

For one, all the modeling has trended west, implying the trough will not be deep enough to pull Dennis northward into FL. I think this is a very significant trend.

Second, is how much agreement the global models are. Both the 12z EURO and GFS have almost identical solutions. The UKMET and the Canadian are further east with the surface low (UKMET near Mobile and Canadian on the FL panhandle), but do agree with the upper level pattern of the trough pulling out with the ridge expanding once again. In fact, the UKMET has made a large adjustment west.

This type of model consensus is hard to ignore, especially since it makes perfect sense.

Here are the 12z globals at 144 hrs...

GFS http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml

EURO
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 5070512!!/

UKMET
http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_ame ... _0000.html

Canadian (120hr...probably too quick)
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 12_120.jpg

[jkt21787]

Very true and I'm in complete agreement. The models are amazingly close in their tracks for being this far out.

Nice to see your thoughts Alhurricane! BTW, nice break from the drought/heat we're having, eh?

[melhow]

The latest model runs have a bunch of significance.

For one, all the modeling has trended west, implying the trough will not be deep enough to pull Dennis northward into FL. I think this is a very significant trend.

Second, is how much agreement the global models are. Both the 12z EURO and GFS have almost identical solutions. The UKMET and the Canadian are further east with the surface low (UKMET near Mobile and Canadian on the FL panhandle), but do agree with the upper level pattern of the trough pulling out with the ridge expanding once again. In fact, the UKMET has made a large adjustment west.

This type of model consensus is hard to ignore, especially since it makes perfect sense.


Here is the 12z

Did you mean to post a link here?..

[cycloneye]

Yes AL I agree.Is impressive how the models are clustered so far out.

[LAwxrgal]

You are absolutely correct ALhurricane. I have never seen this much model agreement in a track 5 days out. Usually they're spread out.

[ALhurricane]

I edited the post to include links to the globals. Some how brilliant me cut them off on the original post.

[jkt21787]

I edited the post to include links to the globals. Some how brilliant me cut them off on the original post.

Thanks for the update. I was wondering where it was!

[wxcrazytwo]

But, weren't they also clustered with Charlie. Look what happened there. I guess we will see.

[Hurricaneman]

Well see

[Johnny]

Quick question....yesterday evening the different models were clustered also but further east. As of late they are still clustered but further west. In other words, the models are still tightly clustered but have been trending westward. Will the models still continue on a westward trend or are they now keying in on a particular area?

[dwg71]

But, weren't they also clustered with Charlie. Look what happened there. I guess we will see.

Charlie turned right, but it didnt miss by 200 miles... werent models putting it in Tampa??

[gkrangers]

Quick question....yesterday evening the different models were clustered also but further east. As of late they are still clustered but further west. In other words, the models are still tightly clustered but have been trending westward. Will the models still continue on a westward trend or are they now keying in on a particular area?

Dennis continues in a mostly westward direction..so the track through the Carribbean might shift further west. However, the track through the GOM is more based on the subtropical ridge, weakness left by Cindy, etc...I can't comment on that part.

[x-y-no]

But, weren't they also clustered with Charlie. Look what happened there. I guess we will see.

Charlie turned right, but it didnt miss by 200 miles... werent models putting it in Tampa??

Actually, IIRC, the models were taking Charley into the Yucatan 5 days out.

Jan

EDIT: See this thread http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=66120

[CFL]

If I remember correctly the Canadian pretty much nailed Ivan.

[ALhurricane]

The important thing to focus on at this point is model trends. Most of the modeling is trending west with time. Dennis will likely be tugged north some in the central and western Caribbean as the remnants of Cindy leaves a weakness in the ridge. But the models are consistent now in showing that weakness lifting out and the ridge building back in, helping the storm to maintain a more westerly track.

Don't focus on exact tracks, but in the overall track trends.

[ALhurricane]

CFL,

Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then

Typically, the Canadian is a step behind the other global models.

[Rainband]

Since the models don't have the recon data won't the new models at 8pm have more accurate information to provide?

[x-y-no]

The important thing to focus on at this point is model trends. Most of the modeling is trending west with time. Dennis will likely be tugged north some in the central and western Caribbean as the remnants of Cindy leaves a weakness in the ridge. But the models are consistent now in showing that weakness lifting out and the ridge building back in, helping the storm to maintain a more westerly track.

Don't focus on exact tracks, but in the overall track trends.

Yes, and obviously we aren't going to have a monster trough like the one which picked up Charley.

I find the model consensus right now very plausible.

Jan

[dwg71]

The models arent THAT far off from where they began, and once the center is fixed with recon they could move back to East. The trend is you friend, but i want to get to know my friend a little better before i buy into this "west" shift.

[CFL]

I don't want to be the "nut" again this time!

Could this wind up being a worst case scenerio for the people of New Orleans?