No hurricane watch?

uknowmeitsmattp · #1 Postby **uknowmeitsmattp** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:48 pm

When Arlene got to 60 mph they issued a hurricane watch... now this thing went from 40mph to 60mph in just 6 hours. The possibility of it nearing hurricane force can't be ruled out at this point... I wonder if NHC thinks it's too close to land?

Stratusxpeye · #2 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:49 pm

I was thinking the same thing. At least a watch. Def no warning. Maybe bc of its structure and lopsideedness its just not able to become hurricane.

uknowmeitsmattp · #3 Postby **uknowmeitsmattp** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:51 pm

Arlene was much worse looking than Cindy... Arlene had rain extending over 500 miles east of the center... very unorganized.

Website · #4 Postby **Brent** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:56 pm

Probably see one at 5pm depending on what recon finds. Keep an eye on the NWS discussions from New Orleans and Mobile.

#5 Postby **baygirl_1** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:04 pm

Brent wrote:Probably see one at 5pm depending on what recon finds. Keep an eye on the NWS discussions from New Orleans and Mobile.

here's mobile's discussion:

000
FXUS64 KMOB 051550 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1050 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005

.SHORT TERM...LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK OF TS CINDY TAKING THE CENTER JUST WEST OF GULFPORT BY 7 AM WED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST A FEW MILES LEFT OF THE LATEST 12Z GFS (WHICH SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS GFS 00Z/06Z TRACK). WE WOULDNT BE TOTALLY SUPRISED TO SEE AN ADDITIONAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK LATER TODAY. THE 10 AM ADVISORY UPDATE BROUGHT TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FURTHER EAST TO DESTIN WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY AND PAST TRENDS FURTHER EASTWARD.

WE INCREASED THE WINDS OVER THE MARINE ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE EASTWARD TRACK...AS WELL AS SEAS TO NEAR 10 FT OFFSHORE (MAY HAVE TO EVEN INCREASE THAT LATER TODAY).

Website · #6 Postby **Brent** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:10 pm

baygirl_1 wrote:
Brent wrote:Probably see one at 5pm depending on what recon finds. Keep an eye on the NWS discussions from New Orleans and Mobile.

The afternoon update... it should be out before the NHC advisory is.

#7 Postby **baygirl_1** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:15 pm

Brent wrote:Probably see one at 5pm depending on what recon finds. Keep an eye on the NWS discussions from New Orleans and Mobile...

The afternoon update... it should be out before the NHC advisory is.

i know, but i posted it since, at 11, they were already talking about shifting it further east and upping wind forecasts.
i'm gonna have fun moving stuff outside with a damaged right wrist! think i'll wait for "reinforcement"-- he'll be home from work hopefully before rain starts!

#8 Postby **drezee** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:21 pm

128
WTNT63 KNHC 051917
TCUAT3
TROPICAL STORM CINDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
220 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
WINDS IN CINDY ARE NEAR 70 MPH. LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR TO
LANDFALL.

FORECASTER PASCH

gkrangers · #9 Postby **gkrangers** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:22 pm

drezee wrote:128
WTNT63 KNHC 051917
TCUAT3
TROPICAL STORM CINDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
220 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
WINDS IN CINDY ARE NEAR 70 MPH. LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR TO
LANDFALL.

FORECASTER PASCH

That about sums things up...they are going to keep Cindy as a TS.

#10 Postby **drezee** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:24 pm

gkrangers wrote:
drezee wrote:128
WTNT63 KNHC 051917
TCUAT3
TROPICAL STORM CINDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
220 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
WINDS IN CINDY ARE NEAR 70 MPH. LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR TO
LANDFALL.

FORECASTER PASCH
That about sums things up...they are going to keep Cindy as a TS.

no matter what? :roll:

#11 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:26 pm

That's odd, one rapid intensity cycle, and blammo.

hurricanedude · #12 Postby **hurricanedude** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:26 pm

cant upgrade to hurricane status just because, if it aint a cane, it aint a cane

jkt21787 · #13 Postby **jkt21787** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:27 pm

I'm assuming by the nature of the statement that there won't even be hurricane watches/warnings issued?

gkrangers · #14 Postby **gkrangers** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:29 pm

drezee wrote:
gkrangers wrote:
drezee wrote:128
WTNT63 KNHC 051917
TCUAT3
TROPICAL STORM CINDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
220 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
WINDS IN CINDY ARE NEAR 70 MPH. LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR TO
LANDFALL.

FORECASTER PASCH
That about sums things up...they are going to keep Cindy as a TS.

no matter what?

Thats what it sounds like. The NHC guys probably are expecting a ton of hurricanes this season and they don't want to bust on their predictions, so Cindy stays a TS.

I guess they could upgrade it if they found really strong winds (over 80mph), but I don't think they will after a statement like that.

#15 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:31 pm

hurricanedude wrote:cant upgrade to hurricane status just because, if it aint a cane, it aint a cane

Yeah...but they usually will put up a Hurricane watch even if it's not expected. We're only talking 5 mph here. Considering the deepening that has taken place already...and the fact it still has some time over water...I would think they would issue a watch at least. I've seen them put up warnings for less threat.

Gorky · #16 Postby **Gorky** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:32 pm

Surely thats what a watch is for though. Hurricane conditions might occur in the next 24 hours. I can understand them not issuing a warning, but a watch would be justified as you cannot rule anything out. I can only assume this is a call to try and limit any panic with the storm so close... They don't want a mass exodus with people stuck on the roads when this storm comes in...

jax · #17 Postby **jax** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:33 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
hurricanedude wrote:cant upgrade to hurricane status just because, if it aint a cane, it aint a cane

Yeah...but they usually will put up a Hurricane watch even if it's not expected. We're only talking 5 mph here. Considering the deepening that has taken place already...and the fact it still has some time over water...I would think they would issue a watch at least. I've seen them put up warnings for less threat.

Correct!

#18 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:34 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
hurricanedude wrote:cant upgrade to hurricane status just because, if it aint a cane, it aint a cane

Yeah...but they usually will put up a Hurricane watch even if it's not expected. We're only talking 5 mph here. Considering the deepening that has taken place already...and the fact it still has some time over water...I would think they would issue a watch at least. I've seen them put up warnings for less threat.

That's what I thought......

gkrangers · #19 Postby **gkrangers** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:36 pm

Well if they do issue Hurricane Watches/Warnings...it'll be at 4PM CDT. So just because they didn't now, doesn't mean they won't at the next advisory. Might want to keep an eye on the Mobile and New Orleans AFDs for updates.

#20 Postby **MGC** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:38 pm

4mph away from a cane and several hours to go over very warm water. If I were a forecaster, I'd have to issue a hurricane warning. Cindy has been strengthing all day, and the trend could continue into the evening. NHC has dropped the ball on Cindy from the get go......MGC

No hurricane watch?

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