Tropical Storm Dennis

#61 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:57 pm

Considering that's 5 days out, that's a pretty darn good consensus. You usually don't see that kind of clustering until right before landfall.

#62 Postby **skysummit** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:57 pm

Keeps going west and they all show a turn toward the north at some point. You know what that tells us...someone's going to get it.

#63 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:58 pm

cycloneye wrote: TROPICAL STORM DENNIS (AL042005) ON 20050705 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050705 1800 050706 0600 050706 1800 050707 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.8N 67.6W 14.8N 70.0W 16.0N 72.4W 17.0N 74.5W
BAMM 13.8N 67.6W 14.8N 70.1W 16.1N 72.4W 17.2N 74.4W
A98E 13.8N 67.6W 15.0N 70.7W 15.9N 73.6W 16.7N 76.1W
LBAR 13.8N 67.6W 14.8N 70.4W 16.1N 73.3W 17.3N 76.2W
SHIP 35KTS 46KTS 57KTS 69KTS
DSHP 35KTS 46KTS 57KTS 69KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050707 1800 050708 1800 050709 1800 050710 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.0N 76.5W 19.8N 79.8W 21.8N 81.8W 23.9N 83.9W
BAMM 18.4N 76.4W 20.6N 80.0W 22.9N 82.8W 25.0N 85.5W
A98E 17.5N 78.3W 18.6N 82.1W 19.8N 84.8W 21.4N 86.6W
LBAR 18.6N 78.9W 21.4N 83.3W 24.6N 85.4W 26.5N 86.5W
SHIP 78KTS 92KTS 99KTS 97KTS
DSHP 78KTS 92KTS 93KTS 92KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 67.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 12.6N LONM12 = 64.0W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 60.8W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 50NM

18:00z Model plots.Grafic very soon updated.

Refresh the grafic until you see the 18:00.UKMET(Blue line) and GFDL (Red Line less dense) haved been updated.

#64 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:59 pm

Wow the models are very clustred now and a little bit to the left from this mornings run.

Rainband · #65 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:59 pm

Looks like good news for me 8-)

#66 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:00 pm

Rainband wrote:Looks like good news for me

Yes Tampa as time goes by is out of the loop.

JTD · #67 Postby **JTD** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:00 pm

This is a major hurricane for sure. Take note of ships bringing it to 100 kts in 72 hours.

Website · #68 Postby **Brent** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:00 pm

99 and 97 KT---THAT'S A MAJOR HURRICANE!!! :eek:

#69 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:01 pm

FUN FUN FUN!!!!

The first three letters in the word "funeral" are FUN

#70 Postby **Blown Away** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:02 pm

Brent wrote:

Fl east coast (N of WPB to be specific) was in the cone at 5am, out at 11pm, now back in!!

Rainband · #71 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:03 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Rainband wrote:Looks like good news for me

Yes Tampa as time goes by is out of the loop.

I just hope the ridge holds. I wont be happy till it's on land somewhere. I don't want anyone to get a bad storm but I just can't handle another one. We were really lucky but it was still very stressful. Were these models run with the new data from recon or didn't they report yet?? I haven't checked. I am going to call my Mom..she was concerned. This is good news

GalvestonDuck · #72 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:03 pm

In my opinion, Dennis will follow more along the LBAR's track until it reaches the western tip of Cuba. After that...hard to tell.

gkrangers · #73 Postby **gkrangers** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:05 pm

Dennis is going to --- someones day up...

Rainband · #74 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:08 pm

gkrangers wrote:Dennis is going to crap someones day up...

Maybe he will go to mexico

Website · #75 Postby **Brent** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:09 pm

Rainband wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
Rainband wrote:Looks like good news for me

Yes Tampa as time goes by is out of the loop.
I just hope the ridge holds. I wont be happy till it's on land somewhere. I don't want anyone to get a bad storm but I just can't handle another one. We were really lucky but it was still very stressful. Were these models run with the new data from recon or didn't they report yet?? I haven't checked. I am going to call my Mom..she was concerned. This is good news

Recon's data won't be in til the evening runs around 8pm EDT.

They ARE a high-altitude flight right and not just a normal low-level fix??

Rainband · #76 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:13 pm

Brent wrote:
Rainband wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
Rainband wrote:Looks like good news for me

Yes Tampa as time goes by is out of the loop.
I just hope the ridge holds. I wont be happy till it's on land somewhere. I don't want anyone to get a bad storm but I just can't handle another one. We were really lucky but it was still very stressful. Were these models run with the new data from recon or didn't they report yet?? I haven't checked. I am going to call my Mom..she was concerned. This is good news

Recon's data won't be in til the evening runs around 8pm EDT.

They ARE a high-altitude flight right and not just a normal low-level fix??

Thanks Brent. I like extrap the best!! :lol:

southerngale · #77 Postby **southerngale** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:23 pm

The models may shift back to the right again though. They usually do, right?

tallbunch · #78 Postby **tallbunch** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:25 pm

This is going directly to South Carolina. :lol:

dwg71 · #79 Postby **dwg71** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:26 pm

southerngale wrote:The models may shift back to the right again though. They usually do, right?

The word "usually" is not used in hurricane forecasting...

x-y-no · #80 Postby **x-y-no** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:26 pm

I note that the UKMET has shifted left in the long term now also. Looking like very strong consensus here.

This track is bad news. At the very least it'll be a huge rain event for Jamaica, and then those waters just south of Cuba are really warm. And crossing western Cuba won't slow him down much.

Bottom line is, this track is a recipe for a very significant storm in the Gulf.

Jan

Tropical Storm Dennis

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