DENNIS MAJOR THREAT NEW ORLEANS to galveston

#21 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 12:43 pm

Not to minimize Dennis right now, but NOLA has to worry about Cindy
for the next 24-26 hours. Then we can worry about Dennis.

Normandy · #22 Postby **Normandy** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 12:45 pm

This is a different synoptic setup than Charley's. There isn't a unseasonably strong trough that will pull Dennis north then north east. Had there been no trough than Charley would have paise SE Texas and SW Lousiana a visit.

#23 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 12:51 pm

Man, he's really booking it, eh? :lol:

AL Chili Pepper · #24 Postby **AL Chili Pepper** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 12:52 pm

Kevin_Cho wrote:
Normandy wrote:I see a Westerly movement with a tiny north component.....a hair north of due west. I spot the center just south of the forecast point, and imo its going to go south of the next forecast point. It all depends on where it is when it nears Jamaica....if it passes North then between Pensacola and New Orleans...if it passes south (which i think it will do, placing the northern eyewall over Jamaica) then I see a hit between New Orlens and Houston.

We'll just have to wait and see, but if you remember correctly Charley passed south of Jamaica, and we all know where that went. I think the determining factor will really be the next 24-36 hours, not if it passes north or south of Jamaica. God knows Texas needs the rain lol, not Florida, especially South Florida.

Kevin Cho - East Naples, FL
Junior: Naples High School

I'm not saying it won't happen, but Charley ran up against a monster long-wave that extended into the southern Gulf. That happens once every blue moon.

Normandy · #25 Postby **Normandy** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 12:54 pm

Looking at the floater, the center is directly west of the prior forecast point. This is how I am tracking motion.

#26 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 12:55 pm

LAwxrgal wrote:Man, he's really booking it, eh?

Looks like he's moving more to the west too. The track...at least the first couple of days...may have to be adjusted left again.

Normandy · #27 Postby **Normandy** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 12:57 pm

I just dont see how it will pass between Jamaica and DR and Haiti. Its gonna have to turn more northwestward to hit the next forecast point.

Cape Verde · #28 Postby **Cape Verde** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 12:57 pm

Moving at 20 mph? That is a remarkable speed and I don't think I recall a storm moving that fast before.<P>That's very good news for the Keys and South Florida. Not so good news for Jamaica because it will be on top of them before they realize it...

gtalum · #29 Postby **gtalum** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 12:59 pm

Wasn't Charley moving at 20+ mph?

Website · #30 Postby **Brent** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 12:59 pm

Cape Verde wrote:Moving at 20 mph? That is a remarkable speed and I don't think I recall a storm moving that fast before.<P>That's very good news for the Keys and South Florida. Not so good news for Jamaica because it will be on top of them before they realize it...

Claudette, Charley, Ivan.

#31 Postby **LSU2001** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 12:59 pm

CHarley was moving at about 21 mph when in this same region.
I also think more west in track and more west in initial motion.
TIm

#32 Postby **LSU2001** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:01 pm

over 600 posts at this rate I'll be over a thousand by september
TIm

tw861 · #33 Postby **tw861** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:01 pm

GFS 12z run

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_174l.gif

Looks like about the same spot that Cindy's headed for.

wxcrazytwo · #34 Postby **wxcrazytwo** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:04 pm

If he is booking at 20 mph and heads more westlery, then will he be heading on the northerly path and if the ridge holds will he heading NE into Florida (Tampa/St. Pete) area?

Normandy · #35 Postby **Normandy** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:07 pm

The farther west he travels....the farther west he hits. imo.

Johnny · #36 Postby **Johnny** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:07 pm

This looks very similar to Ivan's track. What was the pattern setup during Ivan?
Anyways, in my amateur opinion..I think Dennis is going to miss Jamaica just a hair to the south. I don't see Dennis going north of Jamaica. Just my worthless 2 cents.

wxcrazytwo · #37 Postby **wxcrazytwo** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:11 pm

Ivan, Charly, they all turned, but Charley turned to the east and eventually deflated Punta Gorda..

#38 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:16 pm

wxcrazytwo wrote:If he is booking at 20 mph and heads more westlery, then will he be heading on the northerly path and if the ridge holds will he heading NE into Florida (Tampa/St. Pete) area?

The further west he goes and at a faster clip means the risk for the western GOM will increase and the NHC track and models will once again shift west. The 12Z GFS has Dennis sitting south of the DR/Haiti border tomorrow at 18z...but it would have to slow down to 14 kts to make that point. SO...it will likely be 2 or 3 degrees SW of the 12z run's 30 hr forecast...because it would also have to move at about 290-300 to get to that point now...and it looks to me like it is moving at 270.

Johnny · #39 Postby **Johnny** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:18 pm

Thanks for the info. AFM. What do you think about Dennis going South of Jamaica? A good possibility?

Cape Verde · #40 Postby **Cape Verde** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:19 pm

Ivan bumped into Jamaica and then skirted it to the south, which really wasn't much a favor since it was pretty close to the shoreline.

DENNIS MAJOR THREAT NEW ORLEANS to galveston

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