Tropical Storm Cindy =Downgraded,Last Advisory

[cycloneye]

Let's post all the advisories in this thread to not have a bunch of threads for advisorys only down the pages.Also the tropical model guidance can be posted here too.

[cycloneye]

WTNT33 KNHC 051144
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CINDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

...CINDY HEADING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN... AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF PASCAGOULA TO DESTIN
FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

T 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

CINDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK
WOULD BRING CINDY NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST LATE NIGHT OR EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN SQUALLS...TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...26.4 N... 90.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

[dhweather]

All eyes on 10:00

[cycloneye]

Comming in minutes the advisory.

[lilbump3000]

I expect winds to most likely increase to 50MPH or possible even 60MPH. Looks like she is starting to organized quickly.

[drezee]

I expect winds to most likely increase to 50MPH or possible even 60MPH. Looks like she is starting to organized quickly.

They won't increase it to 60 without recon.

[Ixolib]

I expect winds to most likely increase to 50MPH or possible even 60MPH. Looks like she is starting to organized quickly.

Warm(er) water might be helping in that regard...

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Cindy Forecast/Advisory Number 8

Statement as of 15:00Z on July 05, 2005

at 10 am CDT...1500z...the Tropical Storm Warning is extended
eastward to Destin Florida and a tropical storm watch has been
issued east of Destin to Indian Pass Florida. Also at 10 am
CDT...1500z...the Tropical Storm Warning west of Intracoastal City
Louisiana is discontinued.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from Intracoastal City
Louisiana eastward to Destin Florida...and a tropical storm watch
is in effect east of Destin to Indian Pass Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm center located near 27.0n 90.4w at 05/1500z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the north or 360 degrees at 12 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1002 mb
Max sustained winds 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
34 kt....... 90ne 90se 0sw 20nw.
12 ft seas..120ne 120se 0sw 30nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 27.0n 90.4w at 05/1500z
at 05/1200z center was located near 26.4n 90.4w

forecast valid 06/0000z 28.7n 90.2w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 30sw 60nw.

Forecast valid 06/1200z 30.5n 89.4w...inland
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 75ne 90se 30sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 07/0000z 31.8n 88.5w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 07/1200z 33.0n 87.0w...inland
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.

Forecast valid 08/1200z 36.5n 83.0w...extratropical
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 09/1200z 40.0n 79.0w...extratropical
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.

Outlook valid 10/1200z 43.0n 74.0w...extratropical
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 27.0n 90.4w

next advisory at 05/2100z

forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

...CINDY CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
COAST...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED A LITTLE EASTWARD...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. ALSO AT 10 AM
CDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA IS DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
IS IN EFFECT EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT
165 MILES... 265 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

CINDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE NEARING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S....WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...27.0 N... 90.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

[dhweather]

If the convection continues to fire - she just might make 65MPH winds.

[HURAKAN]

Cindy is taking very serious the fact that her time is limited!!

[skysummit]

Blowing up rather nicely. A brand new spurt of energy on the SE corner of the other spurt!

[seahawkjd]

Tropical Storm Dennis Discussion Number 3


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 05, 2005


Banding features are becoming better defined and...based on a Dvorak
classification of t2.5 from TAFB...the cyclone is being named.
This is the earliest date ever to have four named tropical cyclones
in the Atlantic Basin. The storm will be in a low-shear and high
oceanic heat content environment for the next several days...so
further strengthening is likely. The official intensity forecast
may be conservative at the longer range...but there is little if
any skill in intensity change prediction at days 4-5.
Dennis is moving a little north of west near 16 kt as a result of a
deep easterly steering flow to the south of the subtropical high.
A general west-northwestward track with a little deceleration is
predicted. This is similar to the previous forecast and in good
agreement with the dynamical model consensus. Because of
uncertainty in longer-range track predictions...it is too early to
speculate on what portions of the U.S. Might be threatened.
A tropical storm watch has been issued for a portion of Hispaniola
at this time.
Forecaster Pasch


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 05/1500z 13.3n 66.6w 35 kt
12hr VT 06/0000z 14.4n 68.7w 40 kt
24hr VT 06/1200z 15.9n 71.5w 50 kt
36hr VT 07/0000z 17.4n 74.1w 60 kt
48hr VT 07/1200z 18.9n 76.6w 65 kt
72hr VT 08/1200z 21.5n 81.0w 70 kt
96hr VT 09/1200z 23.5n 83.5w 75 kt
120hr VT 10/1200z 26.0n 86.0w 75 kt


$$

[cycloneye]

1 PM CDT advisory up in a few minutes.

[clfenwi]

17Z ob from ship V7HC9 (in the NE quadrant) was 60 knots...

[dhweather]

17Z ob from ship V7HC9 (in the NE quadrant) was 60 knots...

Knots or MPH? All I've heard/seen is 58 MPH.

[clfenwi]

17Z ob from ship V7HC9 (in the NE quadrant) was 60 knots...

Knots or MPH? All I've heard/seen is 58 MPH.

05/17 V7HC9 05173 99276 70898 41/94 /1360 10270 2026/ 40115 57005 78299 8////
22200 00276 20303 30909 40712 50712 6//// 80260 ICE /////=

I read that as 60 knots from 130

[Thunder44]

It's true! Look at the obs around Arlene here.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... 250&time=3

[Steve]

...Cindy a little stronger...conditions deteriorating along the
north central Gulf Coast....
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Morgan City Louisiana
eastward to Destin Florida...and a tropical storm watch is in
effect east of Destin to Indian Pass Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 1 PM CDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was
located near latitude 27.6 north... longitude 90.4 west or about
125 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Cindy is moving toward the north near 14 mph and a gradual turn
toward the north-northeast is expected during the next 24 hours.
On this track the center will be nearing the north central Gulf
Coast tonight or early on Wednesday.
A ship just northeast of the center reported winds near 70 mph...but
quality control analysis indicates that these winds are likely a
little too high. Nevertheless...Cindy appears to have strengthened
a little more and maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near
60 mph...with higher gusts. A NOAA hurricane hunter plane is
nearing Cindy and should give more definitive intensity
information. Some additional increase in strength is possible
before landfall.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
to the east of the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels is
possible near and to the east of where the center crosses the
coast.

Total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are possible over the
central Gulf Coast and parts of the southeastern U.S....with
isolated maximum amounts to 10 inches.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of southeastern
Louisiana...southern Mississippi...southern Alabama...and the
western Florida Panhandle today.

Repeating the 1 PM CDT position...27.6 N... 90.4 W. Movement
toward...north near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 60 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
4 PM CDT.

Forecaster Pasch

[Steve]

>>Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.

In the link posted above to NOAA, they had 29.47 surface a bit south of there (27.1/90.2 ish report).

Steve