DENNIS MAJOR THREAT NEW ORLEANS to galveston

[rainstorm]

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http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=144hr

i am thinking cat3 at least.

[jkt21787]

I have to agree that the models are shifting west and all indications are the threat is becoming less and less to Florida. Some are even discussing a Yucatan/Mexico hit

However, it is way too soon to make a final call on landfall. Everyone in the GOM should watch this storm closely.

[JTD]

At this early point, I would tend to agree.

[CFL]

I hope it heads west and misses every inch of the state of Florida. No Alabama hits allowed either.

[Huckster]

The 6z GFS had Dennis hitting the TX/LA border and 12z has it coming ashore at south central/southeast LA. I've seen much worse consistency from the GFS.

[Normandy]

Yep I agree as well. I would tend to think between Galveston and Mobile.... With a target zone between Beaumont and New Iberia.

[dwg71]

IMO, landfall will occur from SE LA to Tampa. Models are in pretty good agreeance with a NW turn then eventullay NNW. It wont make western gulf.

[jrod]

You know these early systems tend to be difficult to predict. I have seen a few that have been forecast to make it to the gulf form the carribean only to keep going west and slamming Central America.

I need to get far far away from this computer and forget about this thing and take another look at it tommorow or something. Anxiously anticipating the next image from the floater is a waste.

[Aquawind]

Could be ugly alright.. Hopefully not for the major metro areas.

Paul

[Brent]

I hope it heads west and misses every inch of the state of Florida. No Alabama hits allowed either.

Yes... Alabama and Florida are closed.

[Cape Verde]

i am thinking cat3 at least.

<P>I think you have that part right, but I can't agree with the landfall region. It seems wide open to me today. Somewhere between south Texas and St. Petersburg Florida seems likely but without an obvious steering mechanism, I don't think we can make a better guess than that.<P>I'm sure it will become more clear later this week.

[dhweather]

I hope it heads west and misses every inch of the state of Florida. No Alabama hits allowed either.

Yes... Alabama and Florida are closed.

We love you too.

[flashflood]

You know these early systems tend to be difficult to predict. I have seen a few that have been forecast to make it to the gulf form the carribean only to keep going west and slamming Central America.

I need to get far far away from this computer and forget about this thing and take another look at it tomorrow or something. Anxiously anticipating the next image from the floater is a waste.

If I were you I'd take advantage of this Tropical season and get in all you can, while you can. I remember others seasons where it was so boring, I thought that I felt like giving up on following Tropical weather, but of course I always come back..... Ok, now which floater image comes next! :-)

[rainstorm]

i am thinking cat3 at least.

<P>I think you have that part right, but I can't agree with the landfall region. It seems wide open to me today. Somewhere between south Texas and St. Petersburg Florida seems likely but without an obvious steering mechanism, I don't think we can make a better guess than that.<P>I'm sure it will become more clear later this week.

there is a strong ridge that should steer it at least to new orleans. we will see of course. i also think the stronger it gets, the more west it will go

[stormandan28]

actually I thought the stronger they are the better chance to turn more north?

[Ivanhater]

Dennis has just become a storm and is far away and what scares me is the models are pretty much all together and in agreement, this strikes me as very odd as most of the time in the early stages of a storm the models are spread out

[LSU2001]

kevin,
WHere do you see a more northerly component to the storm???
I see west to west north west.
TIm

[Normandy]

I see a Westerly movement with a tiny north component.....a hair north of due west. I spot the center just south of the forecast point, and imo its going to go south of the next forecast point. It all depends on where it is when it nears Jamaica....if it passes North then between Pensacola and New Orleans...if it passes south (which i think it will do, placing the northern eyewall over Jamaica) then I see a hit between New Orlens and Houston.

[Cape Verde]

Texans definitely want and need the rain, but I don't think we should hope for Dennis to visit. It looks likely that it could be at least a Category 2 storm at landfall, quite possibly more than that.

[Normandy]

I think SE Texas will get rain out of Dennis, because unlike Cindy it wont be lopsided (Itll be a potent system with all quads having precip). I wouldnt be surprised if the outer rainbands gave Houston some showers.