Question-GFS 12z seems to show Dennis New Orleans Hit?

[JTD]

The 12z GFS seems to show a New Orleans hit again, doesn't it?

Isn't this the 4th run in a row or so of the GFS to show this. This is rather interesting.

[Lowpressure]

Models are running pretty consistant to this point. With that said it is WAY too early to think about landfall, unless you live in the Greater Antilles or Jamaica. The threat will be real shortly for the islands, as for US, relax for now and watch. It appears as though the Keys will be first to deal with potential issues here.

[PurdueWx80]

I hate to say it (because I hate the GFS), but it's run from 12z this morning seems to make a lot of sense to me. It actually brings it in near the mouth of the MS River and keeps it on a NW track all the way to KANSAS! From there it rounds the bend of the ridge and heads northeast towards the Lakes. I doubt this exact track will play out (extremely rare...but then again it is only July) so we shall see. If this does pan out, many areas being affected by the current drought (from Texas to Chicago) may see some much needed relief from Dennis in a week or so.

[patsmsg]

If this does pan out, many areas being affected by the current drought (from Texas to Chicago) may see some much needed relief from Dennis in a week or so.

There's that proverbial silver lining we keep hearing about.

[dhweather]

Well, consistancy among model runs is something to watch.

However, beyond 72 hours, they are all subject to large errors.

[gulfcoastdave]

Nobody can say today where dennis is heading...............heck look at how much Cindy's projection has changed in the past 24hrs.


People just need to watch Dennis and be prepared come later this week and into the weekend.

gcd

[AL Chili Pepper]

The Euro is backing that up. You can't really tell the exact location on this map, but it's somewhere around NO, Mobile, Pensacola.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 5070500!!/

[skysummit]

We really don't need to "worry" about Dennis right now, we just need to be prepared. We all know how much models shift. Everytime a model indicates a proposed landfall, we tend to get excited and citizens of that area tend to get worried. There's lots of time so we should all just be getting prepared right now.

For instance...even with Cindy just off the La. coast, we're filling our generators up...not for Cindy, but for Dennis just in case. No one down here is really worried too much about Cindy...at least as far as I can see. Dennis seems to have taken center stage.