Tropical Storm Dennis

[dwg71]

Its not west of forecast points, its acutally north.

[Normandy]

??? I guess it all depends on where one thinks the center is.

[canegrl04]

HOLY CRAP Looks like Lousiana will be the bullseye this season for GOM storms. Dennis possibly 100mph by weeks end

[Normandy]

I think itll eventually end up somehwere between Houston and Mobile. So yea LA is definitely under the gun imo from Dennis.

[Normandy]

I think itll eventually end up somehwere between Houston and Mobile. So yea LA is definitely under the gun imo from Dennis.

[Johnny]

Yep, Louisiana needs to keep an eye on this one.

[NC George]

I love how the NHC states in the text of the advisory that it is too early to speculate on where Dennis will hit, and then they have a 5-day graphic showing a potential EGOM hit. So which is it - to early to speculate, or not to early to speculate (because that's what the 4-5 day forecast is - speculation.)

Just looking for consistancy.

[Canelaw99]

I love how the NHC states in the text of the advisory that it is too early to speculate on where Dennis will hit, and then they have a 5-day graphic showing a potential EGOM hit. So which is it - to early to speculate, or not to early to speculate (because that's what the 4-5 day forecast is - speculation.)

Just looking for consistancy.

It IS too early to tell - just look at the cone they have 5 days out - could be anywhere from eastern FL to the Yucatan Peninsula...remember what the lesson was from Charley last year - follow the cone, not the line in the middle.

[Foladar]

I love how the NHC states in the text of the advisory that it is too early to speculate on where Dennis will hit, and then they have a 5-day graphic showing a potential EGOM hit. So which is it - to early to speculate, or not to early to speculate (because that's what the 4-5 day forecast is - speculation.)

Just looking for consistancy.

It IS too early to tell - just look at the cone they have 5 days out - could be anywhere from eastern FL to the Yucatan Peninsula...remember what the lesson was from Charley last year - follow the cone, not the line in the middle.

Put your fan out, I've got mine out, we must blow this storm away from Homestead

[Normandy]

I disagree. i dont think itll hit texas, I just said from Houston to Mobile. I seriously doubt it hits east of New Orleans...its already heading a bit west of the forecasts points. i think it hits Jamaica dead on, then passes western Cuba, and continues NW into central LA.

[tw861]

I think itll eventually end up somehwere between Houston and Mobile. So yea LA is definitely under the gun imo from Dennis.

I seriously doubt a Texas hit. The storm should track around the edge of the High Pressure system and with the ridge affected by Cindy I am predicting a landfall somewhere between New Orleans and the West Coast of Florida, at any rate, Key West residents will need to be wary of the situation.

Kevin Cho - East Naples, FL
Junior: Naples High School

Hmm.. Right now the upper Texas coast would be on the far western limits of my guess. I would say the mid gulf coast LA/MS has the highest threat with the upper Texas coast and the FLa panhandle not out of the woods.

The thing is Dennis is still moving westward at a good clip. There is some question about where the true center is, but it looks now like he's gonna be south of the 11am forecast positions and if you look at the last three advisorys the track has shifted a little westward with each one. I look for that to continue until a more definite turn to the wnw occurs.

Again, this is only my opinion based on what I'm seeing right now. As always time will tell. Right now I don't think you can say anyone between the Bahamas and Brownsville are out of the woods totally.

[cycloneye]

2 PM advisory in a few minutes.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Dennis Intermediate Advisory Number 3a


Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on July 05, 2005



...Dennis moving rapidly west-northwestward through the eastern
Caribbean Sea...

a tropical storm watch is in effect for the South Coast of the
Dominican Republic from Barahona westward...and for the southwest
peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican Republic border and
Port-au-Prince westward. Interests in the central and western
Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

July 5 is the earliest date on record for the fourth named storm to
have formed in the Atlantic Basin.

At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Dennis was
located near latitude 13.8 north... longitude 67.6 west or about
335 miles... 540 km... south-southwest of San Juan Puerto Rico.

Dennis is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph ...30
km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for the
next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
... 95 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.
Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...13.8 N... 67.6 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 20 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1006 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM EDT.

Forecaster Knabb

[cycloneye]

05/1745 UTC 13.8N 67.5W T2.5/2.5 DENNIS -- Atlantic Ocean

[loon]

05/1745 UTC 13.8N 67.5W T2.5/2.5 DENNIS -- Atlantic Ocean

What T numbers are hurricane strength cyclone? I can never remember...

[cycloneye]

05/1745 UTC 13.8N 67.5W T2.5/2.5 DENNIS -- Atlantic Ocean

What T numbers are hurricane strength cyclone? I can never remember...

4.0 is for 65kts.Look at the whole chart below.

CI MWS MWS MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson
Number (Knots) (MPH) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category
1 25 KTS 29 MPH (Approximate)
1.5 25 KTS 29 MPH
2 30 KTS 35 MPH 1009 mb 1000 mb
2.5 35 KTS 40 MPH 1005 mb 997 mb
3 45 KTS 52 MPH 1000 mb 991 mb
3.5 55 KTS 63 MPH 994 mb 984 mb
4 65 KTS 75 MPH 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS)
4.5 77 KTS 89 MPH 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 KTS); 2 (84-96 KTS)
5 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)
5.5 102 KTS 117 MPH 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 KTS)
6 115 KTS 132 MPH 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
6.5 127 KTS 146 MPH 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
7 140 KTS 161 MPH 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
7.5 155 KTS 178 MPH 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
8 170 KTS 196 MPH 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ KTS)

[jdray]

05/1745 UTC 13.8N 67.5W T2.5/2.5 DENNIS -- Atlantic Ocean

What T numbers are hurricane strength cyclone? I can never remember...

http://www.marinewaypoints.com/marine/wind.shtml

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM DENNIS (AL042005) ON 20050705 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050705 1800 050706 0600 050706 1800 050707 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.8N 67.6W 14.8N 70.0W 16.0N 72.4W 17.0N 74.5W
BAMM 13.8N 67.6W 14.8N 70.1W 16.1N 72.4W 17.2N 74.4W
A98E 13.8N 67.6W 15.0N 70.7W 15.9N 73.6W 16.7N 76.1W
LBAR 13.8N 67.6W 14.8N 70.4W 16.1N 73.3W 17.3N 76.2W
SHIP 35KTS 46KTS 57KTS 69KTS
DSHP 35KTS 46KTS 57KTS 69KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050707 1800 050708 1800 050709 1800 050710 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.0N 76.5W 19.8N 79.8W 21.8N 81.8W 23.9N 83.9W
BAMM 18.4N 76.4W 20.6N 80.0W 22.9N 82.8W 25.0N 85.5W
A98E 17.5N 78.3W 18.6N 82.1W 19.8N 84.8W 21.4N 86.6W
LBAR 18.6N 78.9W 21.4N 83.3W 24.6N 85.4W 26.5N 86.5W
SHIP 78KTS 92KTS 99KTS 97KTS
DSHP 78KTS 92KTS 93KTS 92KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 67.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 12.6N LONM12 = 64.0W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 60.8W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 50NM


18:00z Model plots.Grafic very soon updated.



Refresh the grafic until you see the 18:00.UKMET(Blue line) and GFDL (Red Line less dense) haved been updated.

[Brent]

Westward shift continues...

[BonesXL]

It show seems headed for the GOM