Dennis...Where's the Center?

[MWatkins]

A few fast hits on the center and more later as the 12Z globals start coming in.

Just looking at visible imagery from 1415Z...it looks that although the circulation is very well defined in satellite imagery...there is a good deal of spread in the satellite estimates of the exact center.

SSMI isn't helping much either. A pass from a bit after 11Z shows a couple possible centers...with the main signature a bit south of the current position estimate...but with another (perhaps) to the NE. Or...perhaps we have an elliptical shaped center stretched SW to NE...

http://152.80.49.216/tc_thumbs/20050705 ... UR.04L.jpg

The mid-level look in 85H...not so much helpful either.

http://152.80.49.216/tc_thumbs/20050705 ... FOUR.x.jpg

Finally...a QUIKSCAT image from about an hour before that dodn't show a closed low at all (rain contaminated though) anywhere near where the NHC was tracking the center...but instead oa sharp wave axis:

http://152.80.49.216/tc_thumbs/20050705 ... N.637W.jpg

Finally...looking at a more current hi-res visible image...the center may be hanging back just a small tad may be a bit closer to 66W than estimated in the 11AM advisory.

I'm not sure if any of this really means anything given the tight concensus of the track and global models...but just hunting around for a center.

Oh and one other thing...here is the concensus track from the 12Z run of the models (the model contributers are older/interoplated):

Code: Select all

   North   West   
0   13.0   65.8   
12   14.5   68.6   
24   15.9   71.4   
36   17.4   74.0   
48   19.0   76.5   
60   20.3   78.5   
72   21.4   80.3   
84   22.5   81.8   
96   23.6   83.2   
108   24.8   84.4   
120   25.9   85.6   

MW

[cycloneye]

Recon has to be there to answer those good questions.

[MGC]

We will not know where the center of Dennis is until recon takes a fix. Untill then I would question model accuracy.....MGC

[seahawkjd]

Have they scheduled recon yet since there are already watches out in the islands?

[Brent]

Have they scheduled recon yet since there are already watches out in the islands?

No. Be at least tomorrow before one goes out.

[Portastorm]

In looking at Floater 2 and the infrared loop, it appears that Dennis is further south than the tropical forecast points.

Is that the case?

Will the 12z models initialize the storm further south to more accurately reflect its center ... or is that it, we don't know the center until recon gets down there?!