TD4 looks like its booking straight for the Yucatan

[boca]

I don't see a Turn to the NW, it looks like the system will continue West to WNW straight into the Yucatan under the deep Easterlies. Once in the Gulf it will follow TD3. I think the models will trend West because its really moving rapidly.

[Stratosphere747]

Looks like a Allen track...

[boca]

I agree I hope Florida will be off the hook with this one.

[Stratosphere747]

Well, nobody wants anything like Allen...

I can live with a drought over a Allen type of system...

[WeatherEmperor]

I really really hope you are right because the latest UKMET and GFDL that just came out seem to want to turn it back towards FL. Ofcourse we are days and days away so who knows for sure.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

[Stratosphere747]

Those are old plots....

[Anonymous]

I think it will impact Western Cuba in 4-5 days.

[Stratosphere747]

I think it will impact Western Cuba in 4-5 days.

At what trajectory?

[WeatherEmperor]

Those are old plots....

No they are not. On the link I provided, use the bar and scroll town to where it says TD4 and you will see the UKMET and NOGAPS models for 05Z which is an hour earlier then the other ones on that site come out. Check it out and see if it works now.

<RICKY>

[Stratosphere747]

Those are old plots....

No they are not. On the link I provided, use the bar and scroll town to where it says TD4 and you will see the UKMET and NOGAPS models for 05Z which is an hour earlier then the other ones on that site come out. Check it out and see if it works now.

<RICKY>

Correct....

Still, until this actually becomes a organized storm, I would not give much credibility to these models over that much time...

[george_r_1961]

If TD 3 leaves behind a trough..which tropical cyclones often do, then TD 4 isnt going to Texas. It will likely make a beeline for the southeast US or the eastern GOM. Even if a trough isnt left behind the subtropical ridge may be weakened enough by TD 3 to allow of more WNW track, Bottom line..if I lived in Florida Id be watching this REAL close

[Hurricaneman]

Thats gonna be bad for someone

[Stratosphere747]

Anyone in the US from Brownsville to Maine could be impacted..

As good as mets have become with future forecasts, they will be the first to admit that this is to far out to be confident on a landfall...

[WXFIEND]

according to those plots, almost all models take it over Hispaniola.. doesn't everyone agree that would weaken it significantly??

[george_r_1961]

according to those plots, almost all models take it over Hispaniola.. doesn't everyone agree that would weaken it significantly??

It could, depending on how fast its moving. A quickly moving cyclone would only be mildly disrupted. A slow moving one would get torn to shreds,

[rainstorm]

i think it goes south of all the big islands. may clip west cuba or ne yuc

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=144hr

[KatDaddy]

I tend to agree the track will shift more left over time. Its still heading W at a decent clip. This will be the first major hurricane of the season and a threat to the Central GOM.


Hou-Gal AFD:

ECMWF AND GFS BOTH PROG TD#4 TO MOVE SLOWER THAN THE TPC FORECAST
INTO THE EASTERN GULF...TPC PLACES ON THE NORTHERN TIP OF CUBA
MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM FRIDAY...ECMWF/GFS PUT THERE 24 HOURS LATER. BOTH
TRACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WHERE THE ECMWF TAKES IT NORTH
INTO A VERY WEAK BREAK IN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE U.S. WHEREAS
THE GFS HAS STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES STEERING IT WESTWARD
TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE SABINE RIVER ON WEDNESDAY THE 12TH. THIS
COULD GET INTERESTING!

[Portastorm]

The storm's entire presentation on satellite is very impressive when you look at the size of the cloud envelope as well as the intense convection near the center.

Soon-to-be Dennis looks like he's going to be a mighty July hurricane before it's all over ... GOMers all need to be on guard.

[Rainband]

I tend to agree the track will shift more left over time. Its still heading W at a decent clip. This will be the first major hurricane of the season and a threat to the Central GOM.


Hou-Gal AFD:

ECMWF AND GFS BOTH PROG TD#4 TO MOVE SLOWER THAN THE TPC FORECAST
INTO THE EASTERN GULF...TPC PLACES ON THE NORTHERN TIP OF CUBA
MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM FRIDAY...ECMWF/GFS PUT THERE 24 HOURS LATER. BOTH
TRACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WHERE THE ECMWF TAKES IT NORTH
INTO A VERY WEAK BREAK IN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE U.S. WHEREAS
THE GFS HAS STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES STEERING IT WESTWARD
TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE SABINE RIVER ON WEDNESDAY THE 12TH. THIS
COULD GET INTERESTING!

same with Ivan then they shifted east. Too early to tell depends on the ridge. Please put a discalimer on your opinion please. Thanks

[gkrangers]

Models have a better handle on things now that it continues to move west, but they are probably still too far to the right. I would think it'll make it through the Carribbean fairly unobstructed. If anything the extreme NW tip of Cuba, but thats no big deal as far as a cyclone would be concerned. Right now its a matter of western GOM coast, central GOM coast, or Florida.