Quick Update - TD4

[MWatkins]

Just looking at the latest IR4 and IR2 channels...it very much appears that TD4 is getting close to a satellite signature indicative of a tropical storm...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Also...that convective blob out ahead of the system has faded out.

And...as I may have mentioned in another post...the current environment is as favorable as I can ever remember in early July down in the eastern Caribbean.

MW

[hurricanetrack]

Mike:

What do you make of the 0Z GFS taking this to Texas? Could it also miss to the south and hit Mexico?

[Stratosphere747]

Mike:

What do you make of the 0Z GFS taking this to Texas? Could it also miss to the south and hit Mexico?

Have been reading about Allen, this is somewhat similar....Longshot of course...

[fci]

TD #4 is pretty impressive in the loop, looks stronger than a TD there.

[MWatkins]

Mike:

What do you make of the 0Z GFS taking this to Texas? Could it also miss to the south and hit Mexico?

The GFS seems to be unsure what to do with the system once it hits the northern Cuba coast. It seems to wander/reform there for a while (in the model) before shooting westward into the Gulf.

It never seems to intensifiy the system much with an under-represented vortex (in the model) relative to what I think will happen...which is again just my opinion and not an official forecast of any kind...I think we'll have a hurricane somewhere in the NW Caribbean in 3 days.

The bigger key...to me...is what the models are doing with the low pressure trough that appears to have entrained TD3....and with the relatively small mid-level high that is forecast to persist over or east of Florida.

If this high shifts east a bit then FL is in trouble.

If the high persists then it's an eastern/central Gulf problem. IMHO...and that's just my opinion...it will be tough for this system to make it all the way to TX.

But....this is of course the hardest time to pin down a track...when a system is just getting started.

MW

[boca]

Would TD3 cause a weakness that would erode the ridge to force TD4 towards Florida?

[MWatkins]

Would TD3 cause a weakness that would erode the ridge to force TD4 towards Florida?

If it stays relatively weak then any specific impact to the ridge...other than what would otherwise occur with the low-pressure feed through the eastern Gluf would be minimal.

If it gets a bit stronger then it could nose down the ridge a bit more.

My guess is that there would be no specific effect from TD3 as I believe it is already embedded in a larger-scale trough extending up from the Yucatan.

MW