The gFS has not liked TD3 from the get go. However, now seems to love it. It is starting to show strengthening before landfall. Looks like it is staying east too.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif
Look at the new GFS!
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Look at the new GFS!
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Scott_inVA
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mobilebay wrote:That is the 36 hour GFS. Boy it jumped all over TD 3 this time. I don't think there is any doubt that watches/Warnings will be shifted Eastward at 4AM. JMHO
You're right about the model.
GFS has consistenly been east of this storm. Happens alot with the model, especially in the GOM and western Carib.
Scott
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Sean in New Orleans
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rsdoug1981
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Scott_inVA wrote:mobilebay wrote:That is the 36 hour GFS. Boy it jumped all over TD 3 this time. I don't think there is any doubt that watches/Warnings will be shifted Eastward at 4AM. JMHO
You're right about the model.
GFS has consistenly been east of this storm. Happens alot with the model, especially in the GOM and western Carib.
Scott
So, Scott, are you saying that the GFS is probably showing an eastward bias with tonight's run...or do you think it is trending in the right direction?
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Scott_inVA
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rsdoug1981 wrote:So, Scott, are you saying that the GFS is probably showing an eastward bias with tonight's run...or do you think it is trending in the right direction?
Not to spin, but the answer is both.
GFS seems to track too far east which is taken in account based on what looks reasonable and what other models depict. I factor in this bias when forecasting. As such, IMO it remains too far east.
That said, I've been on record as western-central LA since last Saturday...while TPC was bringing it in around Galveston and Houston.
Don't think the GFS has been west of Morgan City, so in that regard it has had the right idea (presuming this pans out)...just a little too far east.
The GFS and other Globals haven't handled TD 3 well but despite what most other people say
, inside 60 hours it is consistently among the best performing models!
BTW, I've created my own consensus model run using the EC, UK and GFS...so far this year the GFS has been the closest of the 3 to the consensus output (but usually to the east).
Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm
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rsdoug1981
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rsdoug1981
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LSU2001
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I have said it before even though i a just a rank amature it seems that the models start left go right and about 30-36 hours out settle on a point in the middle or close to it. I may be way off but that is how it seems.
TIm
Comments please I don't want to keep showing my ignorance forever.
TIm
Comments please I don't want to keep showing my ignorance forever.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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rsdoug1981
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Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, and I know that it's happened before, but it would take one heck of Bermuda High to force a storm all the way across Cuba (or Straights) and all the way across the Gulf...
That would be a horrible scenario for the low lying areas of LA. I'm glad it's the GFS and it's a week out...it'll change.
That would be a horrible scenario for the low lying areas of LA. I'm glad it's the GFS and it's a week out...it'll change.
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rsdoug1981
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clfenwi wrote:CMC brings this to eastern LA in 36-48 hours with 1008 mb pressure.
Its initialization of TD 3 may be fatally undermining this forecast. It started with a 1012 mb low west of 90W...
Let me clarify...I'm referring to the future of td04....
But since you brought up the CMC's initialization of 03, it does look kind of poor.
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rsdoug1981 wrote:clfenwi wrote:CMC brings this to eastern LA in 36-48 hours with 1008 mb pressure.
Its initialization of TD 3 may be fatally undermining this forecast. It started with a 1012 mb low west of 90W...
Let me clarify...I'm referring to the future of td04....
But since you brought up the CMC's initialization of 03, it does look kind of poor.
Yeah, sorry for being in my own little world here...
...going back to TD4... the CMC has a slight disagreement with the GFS.... see http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 135_50.gif
(After looking at where it landfalled TD 3 I looked ahead to 144 hours... and couldn't find TD 4 at first....)
With any luck I'll have some commentary on this in a bit...
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rsdoug1981
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