Why do they think TD4 will hook North towards FL

[boca]

I just can't see it turning north it moving quikly WNW towards Jamaica. Unless a weakness develops by Florida.

[HURAKAN]

I just can't see it turning north it moving quikly WNW towards Jamaica. Unless a weakness develops by Florida.

The high pressure that is pushing TD 3 toward Louisiana will retreat over the next days and that will allow TD 4 to move more NW. Now, who will get affected will depend and how strong the high will be as TD 4 get closer to the Western Caribbean.

[Derek Ortt]

if this does hit cuba west of Havana, how much is left there to damage. Remember, Charley leveled the western subarbs of Havana and Ivan had its way with the rest of W Cuba

[HURAKAN]

Exactly what I mean.

[air360]

just out of curiosity...and this is NOT ment as me trying to pull the storm up to me...im wanting a scientific answer here:)

what would keep it from turning up the east coast? typically it seems if storms get high enough in the islands and end up on the east side of FL they turn and ride the coast. Is there something specific keeping it south and from turning even more N that it is forecast to? As in, what if the high retreats really far...would that turn it even more?

[air360]

you used an accuweather graphic!!

;)

[HURAKAN]

you used an accuweather graphic!!

;)

It shows what I'm trying to explain.

If it's from Accuweather or Inaccuweather, I don't care!!

[Scott_inVA]

The high pressure that is pushing TD 3 toward Louisiana will retreat over the next days and that will allow TD 4 to move more NW. Now, who will get affected will depend and how strong the high will be as TD 4 get closer to the Western Caribbean.

Overall I agree. Ridging over ATL moves east as HP slides down from the Lakes over the Virginias/TN-OH Valley.

My worry remains a trof along the SE coast is the "chute" for this to come in around the Panhandle then inland up to the Mid-Atlantic. Not getting a ton of modeling support for that part of the storm's track...yet.

Scott