10 PM CDT advisory=Still TD#3.

[cycloneye]

WTNT23 KNHC 050225
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032005
0300Z TUE JUL 05 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SABINE PASS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH
AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 89.7W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 89.7W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 89.5W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 25.6N 90.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 27.6N 90.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 29.4N 91.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 31.0N 90.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 32.5N 89.5W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 33.5N 88.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 34.5N 86.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 89.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

FORECASTER STEWART

[WeatherEmperor]

Guess I was wrong. Hasnt slowed down at all.

<RICKY>

[dhweather]

Guess I was wrong. Hasnt slowed down at all.

<RICKY>

Staring at satellite images does things to your eyes.

[LSU2001]

They may be keeping the same parameters as earlier since recon is due out there later tonight.
TIm

[cycloneye]

More east track shift.

[dhweather]

OK, they can quit shiftin it now, it's right where I predicted it!

[LSU2001]

yep more east about morgan city now i think,
TIm

[Brent]

Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 6

Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on July 04, 2005

...Tropical Depression Three continues moving toward the north
central Gulf Coast...

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Louisiana coast
from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Sabine Pass. A tropical
storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning may be required for portions of the watch
area by early Tuesday morning.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Depression Three was
located near latitude 23.9 north... longitude 89.7 west or about
360 miles... 580 km... south of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph
...20 km/hr......and this general motion is expected to continue
for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...with higher gusts...and
the depression could strengthen into a tropical storm on Tuesday.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the
depression later tonight and provide a better estimate of the
maximum winds.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.

Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...23.9 N... 89.7 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 1 am CDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Stewart

[gkrangers]

LOL, about 1/4 of the CONUS is in the cone of doom.

[Wnghs2007]

Looks almost like the Same Path that Tropical Storm Bill Took a few years ago in Early July. Interesting.

[dhweather]

Looks almost like the Same Path that Tropical Storm Bill Took a few years ago in Early July. Interesting.

Bill was a fun TS to have come through.

[Brent]

Looks almost like the Same Path that Tropical Storm Bill Took a few years ago in Early July. Interesting.

Bill was a fun TS to have come through.

Bill was pretty cool. We had an intense squall come through here the next day around Lunchtime... the mailman was coming as 40-50 mph gusts swept through. Power went out a couple of times and really messed up the computer but otherwise it was cool.

[Nimbus]

Not much happening on the infrared shots tonight.
I would almost swear the LLC has slowed down its forward motion.
I better quit before I start seeing mermaids.

[dhweather]

Not much happening on the infrared shots tonight.
I would almost swear the LLC has slowed down its forward motion.
I better quit before I start seeing mermaids.

Depending on how they look, that may not be a bad thing.

[jax]

Where is the discussion?

[Brent]

Where is the discussion?

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 6

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on July 04, 2005

there has been little change in the inner core...while outer
convective banding features have improved over the last 3-6 hours.
A ship northeast of the center reported 33 kt winds around
18z...but the lack of any significant deep convection precludes
increasing the intensity to tropical storm force at this time.

The initial motion estimate is 340/11. The center of the depression
seems to be getting better organized despite the lack of deep
convection...which will probably redevelop later tonight. The
overall circulation envelope appears to be elongated north-south as
it passes along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge
located across Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The NHC
model guidance has shifted more to the right...or east...compared
to previous runs. The official track was shifted to the right of
the previous forecast...but not as far east as the model consensus.
The outflow in the western semicircle is not as restricted as it has
been during the previous 12 hours...and cirrus has been noted
pushing more westward. However...despite the favorable outflow
pattern...a battle exists between very dry air to the west and the
very moist unstable air to the east. The dry air has been winning
out for the most part...and the SHIPS model continues that trend.
For that reason...only modest intensification is forecast even
though the vertical shear is low and SSTs are near 29c. Of course
...By 26 hours...the center of the cyclone will be near the coast
of southern Lousiana during the early morning convective maximum
period...so there may be one last deep burst of convection at that
time which could allow th system to reach 50 kt or so intensity.

The greater New Orleans area is not under the tropical storm watch
at this time.

Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 05/0300z 23.9n 89.7w 30 kt
12hr VT 05/1200z 25.6n 90.5w 35 kt
24hr VT 06/0000z 27.6n 90.9w 45 kt
36hr VT 06/1200z 29.4n 91.2w 50 kt
48hr VT 07/0000z 31.0n 90.7w 35 kt...inland
72hr VT 08/0000z 32.5n 89.5w 25 kt...dissipating inland
96hr VT 09/0000z 33.5n 88.0w 20 kt...remnant low inland
120hr VT 10/0000z 34.5n 86.0w 20 kt...remnant low inland

[jax]

thank you sir....

[cycloneye]

Stacey Stewart has to do 3 discussions thast is why it is the last product to come out for the 3 systems.

[skysummit]

Hey...it may get it together soon!

[HURAKAN]

Will the RECON find a tropical storm?