Tropical Depression #4 Advisorys thread

#21 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:33 pm

Brent wrote:

Brent, do you think that the track for TD4 will keep slowly slowly shifting further and further west as time goes by?

<RICKY>

#22 Postby **dhweather** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:33 pm

Brent wrote:

That's not looking good for SW Florida!

#23 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:33 pm

I'm thinking the lower end of that cone. It would need to be turning now in order to follow that track, but it's waaaay too early to tell.

Website · #24 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:33 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
Brent wrote:

Brent, do you think that the track for TD4 will keep slowly slowly shifting further and further west as time goes by?

<RICKY>

Don't know yet... ask me tomorrow. :lol:

Opal storm · #25 Postby **Opal storm** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:34 pm

Brent wrote:

Looks like trouble is headed my way :eek:

#26 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:36 pm

WTNT24 KNHC 050228
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005
0300Z TUE JUL 05 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF HISPANIOLA BY EARLY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 63.1W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 63.1W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 62.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.3N 65.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.7N 68.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.3N 71.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 55NE 45SE 0SW 55NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.8N 74.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.9N 78.5W...NEAR SOUTH COAST CUBA
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 35NW.
34 KT... 75NE 65SE 40SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 23.5N 81.0W...NEAR NORTH COAST CUBA
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 26.0N 83.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 63.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

FORECASTER STEWART

#27 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:38 pm

yep opalstorm, just cant get a break can we?

#28 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:42 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2005

...FOURTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON DEVELOPS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF HISPANIOLA BY EARLY TUESDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES... 160 KM... WEST-NORTHWEST OF GRENADA AND ABOUT 665
MILES... 1070 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH
...28 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...12.5 N... 63.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

gkrangers · #29 Postby **gkrangers** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:45 pm

*waits patiently for disco*

Website · #30 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:47 pm

gkrangers wrote:*waits patiently for disco*

*Impatiently here*

TWC didn't even mention this system last tropical update. :roll:

Guest · #31 Postby **Guest** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:47 pm

removed ... ivan

#32 Postby **dhweather** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:48 pm

Brent wrote:
gkrangers wrote:*waits patiently for disco*

*Impatiently here*

TWC didn't even mention this system last tropical update.

It's not sensational yet man, what can you expect? :lol:

gkrangers · #33 Postby **gkrangers** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:48 pm

Is it necessary to post the advisories a half dozen times in each thread..?

*now waits impatiently for disco*

#34 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:00 pm

Stacey Stewart has to do 3 discussions that is why it is the last product to come out for the 3 systems.

HurricaneJoe22 · #35 Postby **HurricaneJoe22** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:05 pm

gkrangers, you waiting for disco? you having a 70s flashback? j/k I know what you mean

Website · #36 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:07 pm

Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 1

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on July 04, 2005

satellite information and surrounding surface observations indicate
the strong tropical low over the southeastern Caribbean Sea has
developed into Tropical Depression Four. The initial intensity is
based on satellite estimates of 25 kt and an earlier 31-kt wind
report from St. Lucia.

The initial motion estimate is 285/15. The depression is embedded
within a deep-layered east-southeasterly flow pattern...and this
pattern is forecast to continue for the next 24-36 hours. The
cyclone is expected to slowly gain latitude across the Caribbean
Sea...with a gradual decrease in forward speed and a turn toward
the northwest forecast when the center nears the South Coast of
Cuba. The NHC model guidance is strongly convergent on this general
track through 72 hours...but then they diverge significantly after
that with the ECMWF...NOGAPS...Canadian...and the BAM models
bringing the cyclone near South Florida...and the UKMET...GFS...and
GFDL moeels taking the storm over or just west of the Lower Keys in
96 hours or so.

While the upper-level outflow pattern looks quite impressive on
satellite imagery...the upper-level anticyclone is almost too large
for such a small circulation to intensify very quickly. The
official forecast is a little less than the SHIPS and GFDL models
...Which bring the intensity up to about 70 kt in 72 hours and 80
kt in 96 and 120 hours.

Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 05/0300z 12.5n 63.1w 25 kt
12hr VT 05/1200z 13.3n 65.3w 30 kt
24hr VT 06/0000z 14.7n 68.3w 35 kt
36hr VT 06/1200z 16.3n 71.4w 45 kt
48hr VT 07/0000z 17.8n 74.4w 55 kt
72hr VT 08/0000z 20.9n 78.5w 65 kt...near South Coast Cuba
96hr VT 09/0000z 23.5n 81.0w 65 kt...near north coast Cuba
120hr VT 10/0000z 26.0n 83.0w 70 kt

#37 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:13 pm

We need Floater #3 or just get rid of Dora. :lol:

gkrangers · #38 Postby **gkrangers** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:17 pm

HURAKAN wrote:We need Floater #3 or just get rid of Dora.

The hell with Dora!

#39 Postby **Terry** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:18 pm

HURAKAN wrote:

We need Floater #3 or just get rid of Dora.

lol - I was thinking the exact same thing. We need a floater on TD#4!

Greg · #40 Postby **Greg** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:23 pm

This track is from weather underground, according to the the link properties.

Tropical Depression #4 Advisorys thread

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