UNOFFICIAL...TD Four 10PM Forecast 1...Cat. 2

[ncweatherwizard]

Quote Storm2K:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Quote Nencweather.com:
Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable (see below link), always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com.

Verifications may be found here:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... index.html

Forecast 1:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... /four.html

The forecast is a bit tricky. GFDL and UKMET haven't initialized yet, and I'm not sure how the tropical models are handling the mid-level ridge that is currently steering TD 3. Additionally, the intensity forecast varies a bit depending on the track and consequent movement over land. I'll probably have to fix the forecast a little tomorrow, so this is certainly not etched in stone. Interestingly enough however, the forecast does bring the system southwest of Key West at the 120 hour forecast point.

Scott