Guidance discussion...ridge.

[gkrangers]

What is dictating TD3's motion? How strong and how far west is the ridge over Florida? Is the ridge expected to build westward, forcing a NW to N motion? Or will it fall back towards the Atlantic and let TD3/Cindy make a move toward the northeast at some point?

Thoughts from those who know what they are talking about? (And those who don't as well )

[CFL]

I don't really have any answers for you, but I'm awaiting to see what kind of replies you get. I've been hearing about a ridge of high pressure that is protecting Florida, but when I looked at my local forecast it calls for heavy rain Tuesday night into Wednesday. I always associated high pressure with lots of sunshine and clear conditions. Is this ridge moving or is there just something I don't understand?

[dixiebreeze]

I'm not an expert, but according to TAFB forecast graphics, the Florida ridge is expected to gradually build to the east into the Atlantic. Not sure how long that is supposed to take, but it could affect the path of the storm, I would guess.

[ericinmia]

[gkrangers]

Well the ridge is at the 500mb level, which acts as a buffer. The Euro developed this ridge into the central GOM and would theoretically keep the center away from FL, with a track more towards LA/MS.

But I don't know how strng the ridge is right now or how far west it extends.

[CFL]

After looking at that graphic that was just posted it looks to me like this thing could be steered right into the Florida panhandle!

[tailgater]

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con_3pres.gif
take this with a grain of salt it's only a 3 hour trend, just keep checking.

[Nimbus]

I like the canadian 12 panel since you can see how ridges build and erodes over time.

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_am ... _panel.gif

See how the 1016 pressure line erodes eastward as what is now TD3 approaches?

I think Tuesday will be dry but once a storm makes landfall typically the feeder bands spread out.

I really hope the ridge does not erode as fast as forecast look at what could happen at the end of the week.

[Ixolib]

After looking at that graphic that was just posted it looks to me like this thing could be steered right into the Florida panhandle!

But I believe the forecast is thinking an initial westerly trend followed by an easterly shift late in the track - perhaps at or shortly after landfall. No doubt, though, definitely more easterly than initial and even subsequent projections...