8:05 pm TWD ... wave continues organising ... potential

[Guest]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2005

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LIES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N62W MOVING W 15-20 KT. PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE AREA WITH WLY WINDS NOTED IN THE WINDWARDS S OF GRENADA AND SE WINDS AT BARBADOS. THERE ARE BANDING FEATURES ALL AROUND THE LOW...AND FLOW ALOFT IS CONDUCIVE TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK DURING ITS TREK WESTWARD THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. PRESENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 60W-68W. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ESPECIALLY IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH INCREASED MOISTURE NOTED S OF 15N W OF 50W.

[Guest]

Based on the long sought after west wind, seems as though there might be a closed circulation? No buoys in the area to confirm though.

[Huckster]

My guess is that this system intensifies pretty quickly. I've got a feeling this is one of those cases where the wave immediately goes to storm strength because of no recon observations while it was a TD. I've also got a feeling some of the models may be trying to turn this thing northward too quickly (surprise surprise). This thing is really barrelling along right now. Anyway, here's something to ponder:

[Ivanhater]

reminds me of the early models of ivan and we know how that turned out

[Guest]

Agreed the models seem to make too much of a northward swing when in fact the system has been moving merrily westward.

Also, another puzzling thing with the models is that some take it over Hispaniola and along its merry way while we know that the moutains there are anti-hurricane and tend to shackle them out.

[skysummit]

reminds me of the early models of ivan and we know how that turned out

It sure does. As fast as this system is moving, I think it's going to travel a little further west before turning north into the GOM.

[LSU2001]

Didn't Jeanne tangle with those mountains and live??
Tim

[Stratosphere747]

Ivan had already formed quite a bit east of this specific disturbance..

I've always found interesting what Dr.N Frank calls a "envelope" that is in the general area that this could be heading.

Tends to send them towards C America or thru the Yucatan and into the GOM.

[Steve]

>>..turning north too quickly (surprise surprise)

LMAO

With the size of that thing, I can see Cat-2 written all over it. I can also see "Alabama" written all over it too. Just the same, let's let someone else get hit with some storms for a while so the Gulf can warm back up for August and September (1/2way j/k)

Steve

[Nimbus]

I keep waiting for the models to start sweeping the track west south of Florida.
If it doesn't spin up and slow its forward motion soon its a gulf storm.

[dhweather]

IF that verifies, Naples would be getting slapped around again, eh?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Bite your tongue dhweather I am leaving friday for Sanibel Island and I am watching with great interest. I hope it just keeps going well west and south of Florida. Let it follow TD 3's track and hit when I am not home.

[HurricaneQueen]

Naples says "no to hurricanes!!!"

Lynn

[Guest]

Didn't Jeanne tangle with those mountains and live??
Tim

No. Jeanne skirted around the eastern coastline which cost her to lose some steam. Had she gone across Hispaniola, she's be a goner.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[jlauderdal]

reminds me of the early models of ivan and we know how that turned out

bit early for that kind of intensity but sofla on the wet side again

[WeatherEmperor]

reminds me of the early models of ivan and we know how that turned out

bit early for that kind of intensity but sofla on the wet side again

I hate being on the wet side. Have had so much rain here already that would not be good.

<RICKY>

[HurricaneQueen]

During June I think most of the penisula was on "the wet side". It's just now starting to dry out somewhat. We had record rainfalls as did most of Florida.

Lynn