5:30 PM TWO=Depression tonight or Tuesday

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cycloneye
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5:30 PM TWO=Depression tonight or Tuesday

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 04, 2005 4:09 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 042108
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THREE...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT
435 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS CONTINUING TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. SQUALLY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA...AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT... RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH.
INTERESTS IN AND NEAR THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#2 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 04, 2005 4:10 pm

At least now they are mentioning it could be a possible depression
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#3 Postby Brent » Mon Jul 04, 2005 4:11 pm

FINALLY!!! :)
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#4 Postby BonesXL » Mon Jul 04, 2005 4:14 pm

Wow...so things are really going to get very busy....time to count the water bottles....1,2,3...
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#5 Postby MGC » Mon Jul 04, 2005 4:24 pm

I think this one will be one to watch.....MGC
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#6 Postby Andrew92 » Mon Jul 04, 2005 4:28 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I can see it now if 97L becomes Dennis, becomes a hurricane, and strikes the US as one:

Dennis: "I told you guys I was hurricane at landfall back in '99!"

Of course, we know it wasn't, but it was DARN close....70 mph and I distinctly remember an eye trying to re-develop. This after it had weakened from a Cat. 2 to a 50-mph tropical storm after spending several days off the coasts of NC and VA.

He tried to be hurricane and landfall....will he try again in '05?

-Andrew92
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#7 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jul 04, 2005 4:31 pm

he was the hurricane that brought hurricane force winds and gusts to 115 m.p.h. to Cape Fear, yet made landfall as a tropical storm
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#8 Postby Josephine96 » Mon Jul 04, 2005 5:11 pm

I've gotta feeling this season may be just as active as 1995.. maybe even more..

If you also remember.. Before last year.. 1995 was the last time we were impacted by a hurricane here.. A young lady named Erin came calling lol
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#9 Postby TheShrimper » Mon Jul 04, 2005 5:15 pm

Did Charley disappear approaching you and reimmerge in Orlando?
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#10 Postby Huckster » Mon Jul 04, 2005 5:18 pm

TheShrimper wrote:Did Charley disappear approaching you and reimmerge in Orlando?


I've gotta feeling this season may be just as active as 1995.. maybe even more..

If you also remember.. Before last year.. 1995 was the last time we were impacted by a hurricane here.. A young lady named Erin came calling lol
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If it walks like a duck and quack like a duck

#11 Postby Guest » Mon Jul 04, 2005 5:21 pm

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck .. then it can't be Mr Snuffleupagus.

That thing to the southeast of the windward islands surely looks like a cyclone and spins like a cyclone ...

Remember some years ago when recon when to investigate a disturbance east of the Windward Islands it was upgraded straight to Tropical Storm? It might have been a Chantal ... can't remember which but there were about two or three going at the same time.

This disturbance has such good rotation and feeder bands I am wondering if it is not stronger than a tropical depression.
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#12 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jul 04, 2005 5:34 pm

Claudette from 2 years ago never had a closed circulation until it became a tropical storm. This one has a closed circulation
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#13 Postby Brent » Mon Jul 04, 2005 5:44 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Claudette from 2 years ago never had a closed circulation until it became a tropical storm. This one has a closed circulation


I remember that well. Wind gusts over 50 mph in the Islands. Recon got out and spent hours in the system, didn't find a circulation. Just as they were leaving they were able to barely close one off. It was racing at 25 mph during that time.
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#14 Postby MGC » Mon Jul 04, 2005 5:45 pm

I think it should be upgraded based on surface observations from the islands.......MGC
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#15 Postby skywarn » Mon Jul 04, 2005 5:48 pm

MGC wrote:I think it should be upgraded based on surface observations from the islands.......MGC


I agree and also satellite photos. Definately looks like a closed circulation.
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#16 Postby caribepr » Mon Jul 04, 2005 5:51 pm

Cycloneye, is this pounding we're getting right now in any relationship to what is below us (according to the radar, it's only us getting it right now?)? Lightening, thunder, SERIOUS rain. And that weird yellow light! :eek:
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#17 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 04, 2005 6:26 pm

caribepr wrote:Cycloneye, is this pounding we're getting right now in any relationship to what is below us (according to the radar, it's only us getting it right now?)? Lightening, thunder, SERIOUS rain. And that weird yellow light! :eek:


Image

Well indirectly it has to do with what is SE of us as bands of rain in squalls are moving from the east on the northern perifery of 97L.
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#18 Postby caribepr » Mon Jul 04, 2005 7:32 pm

That's what I couldn't tell for sure. Anyway, it's gone now but that was a strange one, leaving an awesome sunset behind 8-) Thanks!
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