4pm TD 3-TS Watch Sabine Pass to Miss. River

[Brent]

Tropical Depression Three Forecast/Advisory Number 5

Statement as of 21:00Z on July 04, 2005

at 4 PM CDT...2100z...a tropical storm watch is in effect for the
Louisiana coast from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Sabine
Pass. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

Tropical depression center located near 22.8n 89.2w at 04/2100z
position accurate within 50 nm

present movement toward the north-northwest or 340 degrees at 10 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1010 mb
Max sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 22.8n 89.2w at 04/2100z
at 04/1800z center was located near 22.3n 89.0w

forecast valid 05/0600z 24.2n 90.0w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 40sw 60nw.

Forecast valid 05/1800z 26.5n 91.0w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 40sw 60nw.

Forecast valid 06/0600z 28.4n 91.9w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 25se 25sw 25nw.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 50sw 75nw.

Forecast valid 06/1800z 30.2n 92.0w...inland
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 25se 25sw 25nw.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 50sw 75nw.

Forecast valid 07/1800z 32.5n 91.0w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 08/1800z 34.0n 89.0w...inland
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Outlook valid 09/1800z 35.0n 87.0w...dissipating
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 22.8n 89.2w

next advisory at 05/0300z

forecaster Pasch

[skysummit]

Shouldn't this be changed to a Tropical Wave Watch ? j/j

[Anonymous]

It has intensified from 30 mph to 35 mph.

[Brent]

Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 5

Statement as of 4:00 PM CDT on July 04, 2005

...Depression trying to reform to the north of Yucatan...tropical
storm watch issued for the Louisiana coast...

At 4 PM CDT...2100z...a tropical storm watch is in effect for the
Louisiana coast from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Sabine
Pass. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 4 PM CDT...2100z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical
Depression Three was estimated near latitude 22.8 north...
longitude 89.2 west or about 435 miles... 700 km... south of the
mouth of the Mississippi River.

The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph
...19 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for
the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. The depression has the potential to strengthen into a
tropical storm during next 12 to 24 hours.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb...29.83 inches.

Additional rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible over
the extreme northern Yucatan Peninsula during the next 24 hours.
Isolated maximum total amounts of 10 inches are possible in
association with the depression.

Repeating the 4 PM CDT position...22.8 N... 89.2 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1010 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 7 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 10 PM
CDT.

Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

Track shift more eastward.

[Hurricaneman]

Im suprised they said it is still a depression

[Brent]

..and faster. Now a Wednesday landfall.

[Wnghs2007]

..and faster. Now a Wednesday landfall.

Yep but after landfall they show it slowing down some and not covering as great an area. Torrential rains will be the main threat with this system. Just hope it doesnt stall out of areas east of the center could get lots of rain and flooding problems.

[Brent]

..and faster. Now a Wednesday landfall.

Yep but after landfall they show it slowing down some and not covering as great an area. Torrential rains will be the main threat with this system. Just hope it doesnt stall out of areas east of the center could get lots of rain and flooding problems.

I know... and we don't need rain here. There's going to be flooding(how fun).

[sunny]

Our local mets have told us to prepare for deteriorating conditions beginning tomorrow afternoon.

[cycloneye]

C 042047
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2005

TODAY'S DILEMMA IS THE APPARENT REFORMATION OF THE CENTER TO THE
NORTH OF YUCATAN...AS SUGGESTED BY HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE BEEN UNABLE
TO CLOSE OFF A CENTER AND DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE A BROAD
AREA OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WHERE THE PRESSURES ARE LOWEST.
AS A COURSE OF LEAST REGRET...WE WILL ASSUME THAT THE CENTER IS
STILL IN THE PROCESS OF REFORMING...AND CONTINUE TO ISSUE
ADVISORIES ON THE SYSTEM. IN ANY EVENT...THIS NORTHWARD
REPOSITIONING FORCES A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST...AND MOVES UP THE TIME OF ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER AT THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS ALSO NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE NOW IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND
TO THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN.

GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...I HAVE BACKED
OFF A LITTLE ON THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. MOREOVER...THE
MORE NORTHWARD REFORMATION HAS PUT THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO A LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL
AND SHIPS OUTPUT.

THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA IS NOT UNDER THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 22.8N 89.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 24.2N 90.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 26.5N 91.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 28.4N 91.9W 50 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 30.2N 92.0W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 07/1800Z 32.5N 91.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 08/1800Z 34.0N 89.0W 25 KT...INLAND

[Wpwxguy]

Its still a formidible system. We cant just write it off. Its not going to die. Storms are now beginning to fire again on the western side and I would still expect tropical storm strength in the next 12 hours. No one should let their guard down, this can still intensify and can still be life threatening with torrential rainfall and possibly very gusty winds. Anyone on the northern gulf coast should continue to pay very close attention. Over and out!

[feederband]

Its still a formidible system. We cant just write it off. Its not going to die. Storms are now beginning to fire again on the western side and I would still expect tropical storm strength in the next 12 hours. No one should let their guard down, this can still intensify and can still be life threatening with torrential rainfall and possibly very gusty winds. Anyone on the northern gulf coast should continue to pay very close attention. Over and out!

I think there is still alot to come with her...Who know's what she will look like at the 11 pm

[Sean in New Orleans]

Well, at least New Orleans isn't under a Tropical Storm Watch, YET. This system is cause for little concern, at this time, IMO. But, it bears watching.

[Air Force Met]

Well, at least New Orleans isn't under a Tropical Storm Watch, YET. This system is cause for little concern, at this time, IMO. But, it bears watching.

BEAR WATCH has been issued.

[Hurricaneman]

It does bear watching

[iceangel]

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

Code: Select all

26.5N  91.0W      43  X  X  X 43   GALVESTON TX       X 12  5  2 19
28.4N  91.9W      10 21  X  X 31   FREEPORT TX        X  8  5  2 15
30.2N  92.0W       X 20  4  1 25   PORT O CONNOR TX   X  2  5  3 10
ST MARKS FL        X  X  X  3  3   CORPUSCHRISTI TX   X  X  2  3  5
APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  X  4  4   BROWNSVILLE TX     X  X  X  2  2
PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  1  4  5   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  X  3  3
PENSACOLA FL       X  X  4  6 10   GULF 29N 87W       X  1  3  4  8
MOBILE AL          X  2  6  5 13   GULF 28N 89W       8  9  1  1 19
GULFPORT MS        X  6  7  3 16   GULF 28N 91W      19 13  X  X 32
BURAS LA           1 14  3  1 19   GULF 28N 93W       8 19  1  X 28
NEW ORLEANS LA     X 16  4  1 21   GULF 28N 95W       X 11  3  2 16
NEW IBERIA LA      X 22  3  1 26   GULF 27N 96W       X  3  2  3  8
PORT ARTHUR TX     X 15  5  2 22   GULF 25N 96W       X  X  1  1  2

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1PM TUE TO 1AM WED
C FROM 1AM WED TO 1PM WED
D FROM 1PM WED TO 1PM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER PASCH


$$

[Hurricaneman]

the highest probability seems to be in western LA

[Wpwxguy]

Its clear at least in my eyes that it is again coming together. It looks better in the last 2 frames on the visible than it has all day long. I am sure it'll attain tropical storm status. As to hurricane status, its going to be close. I just don't want to call that one. Too much pressure for me. Also, if it does come in as a strong tropical storm just west of N.O. then the city will probably see torrential rainfall and quite gusty conditions. Will all depend on just how strong she is at landfall as to the impacts in the city. I don't think it'll be a strong system, but one that needs our full attention.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I agree Wpwxguy. It seems to be slowly but surely getting better organized. I don't know how strong the shear is north of it though. I just keep expecting to look at it later on and see it intensifying quickly.