Recon Reports for Cindy

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
Derek Ortt

#41 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:14 pm

they're finding a surface trough with no center. Unless we see some reports to the contrary, this may be killed off very soon
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7404
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

#42 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:16 pm

There is a possibility the is no center
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
feederband
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3423
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2003 6:21 pm
Location: Lakeland Fl

#43 Postby feederband » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:18 pm

There not seeing much .....
0 likes   
Top
Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

#44 Postby Air Force Met » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:18 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:they're finding a surface trough with no center. Unless we see some reports to the contrary, this may be killed off very soon


They did find some SSW sfc winds...but it resembles a sharp trof...or VERY broad area of low pressure. Doubt we get a vortex outta this.
0 likes   
Top
tw861
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 208
Joined: Fri Aug 06, 2004 8:19 pm
Location: Spring, TX

#45 Postby tw861 » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:18 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:they're finding a surface trough with no center. Unless we see some reports to the contrary, this may be killed off very soon


Still looks like at least a MLC near 22.5/89.4 or so.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Lowpressure
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2032
Age: 58
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2003 9:17 am
Location: Charlotte, North Carolina

#46 Postby Lowpressure » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:19 pm

How long are they going to stay? Things are moving rather quickly. I would almost expect they cut this one short and head out early a.m.-if necessary.
Last edited by Lowpressure on Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:
Contact skysummit

#47 Postby skysummit » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:20 pm

All that noise down there and nothing? I guess it's just a pretty little swirl. :roll:
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#48 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:21 pm

it should then be killed off and advisories should be written on TD 4 as that clearly is a tropical depression
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7404
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

#49 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:21 pm

Looks like it will be downgraded to a tropical wave
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Wnghs2007
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6836
Age: 36
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2004 11:14 pm
Location: Gwinnett-Barrow Line; Georgia
Contact:
Contact Wnghs2007

#50 Postby Wnghs2007 » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:21 pm

URNT11 KNHC 042021
97779 20084 21225 90300 02800 99005 24232 /0012
49905
RMK AF308 0203A CYCLONE OB 09
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148503
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#51 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:23 pm

We should haved seen at least one vortex message at this hour but nothing yet suggesting that no closed low is there.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Wnghs2007
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6836
Age: 36
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2004 11:14 pm
Location: Gwinnett-Barrow Line; Georgia
Contact:
Contact Wnghs2007

#52 Postby Wnghs2007 » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:25 pm

Conditions should still be favorable for redevelopment into a TD if they find this thing has degenerated right?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#53 Postby senorpepr » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:25 pm

Storm Name: CYCLONE (03L)
Mission Number: 02
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number: 09
Time: 2008Z
Latitude: 22.5°N
Longitude: 90.3°W
Location: 186 mi N of Campeche, Mexico
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 900 feet
Flight level wind: VRB @ 6 mph
Temperature: 75°F
Dewpoint: 73°F
Weather: Broken Skies
Sea level pressure: 1012 mb
Surface Wind: VRB @ 6 mph
Remarks: None
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#54 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:27 pm

conditions are not at all favorable in the GOM if you just throw out the model forecast fields and look at a WV loop.

Any redevleopment would likely be more subtropical due to the shear is the way things are looking now
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Wnghs2007
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6836
Age: 36
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2004 11:14 pm
Location: Gwinnett-Barrow Line; Georgia
Contact:
Contact Wnghs2007

#55 Postby Wnghs2007 » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:27 pm

URNT11 KNHC 042028
97779 20234 20225 89300 02800 21013 24248 /0012
42210
RMK AF308 0203A CYCLONE OB 10
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#56 Postby senorpepr » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:28 pm

Storm Name: CYCLONE (03L)
Mission Number: 02
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number: 10
Time: 2023Z
Latitude: 22.5°N
Longitude: 89.3°W
Location: 186 mi WNW of Cancun, Mexico
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 900 feet
Flight level wind: SSW (210°) @ 15 mph
Temperature: 75°F
Dewpoint: 75°F
Weather: Rainshowers
Sea level pressure: 1012 mb
Surface Wind: SW (220°) @ 12 mph
Remarks: None
0 likes   
Top
tw861
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 208
Joined: Fri Aug 06, 2004 8:19 pm
Location: Spring, TX

#57 Postby tw861 » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:29 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:URNT11 KNHC 042028
97779 20234 20225 89300 02800 21013 24248 /0012
42210
RMK AF308 0203A CYCLONE OB 10


Here's your west wind
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Sean in New Orleans
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1794
Joined: Thu Aug 28, 2003 7:26 pm
Location: New Orleans, LA 30.0N 90.0W
Contact:
Contact Sean in New Orleans

#58 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:30 pm

Yeah...it's not impressive this afternoon..
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7404
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

#59 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:31 pm

Its no more than a broad low
0 likes   
Top
gkrangers

#60 Postby gkrangers » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:33 pm

So we went from anticipating a strong hurricane to no more than a tropical wave in less than 24 hours.

Time to start calling TD4 Cindy!
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: KirbyDude25 and 509 guests