The Future TD 4 Forming?

[Hurricaneman]

I never thought of that

[Weatherboy1]

FWIW, the 3 p.m. Barbados pressure reading looked like it came in at 1011 mb ... the lowest reading yet in the past few days. There certainly hasn't been any rapid deepening, but given the surface obs and the slight pressure decline, it could indicate a TD forming in the vicinity of that new "blob" just SW of Barbados.

[Hurricaneman]

You may be right

[WXFIEND]

Wow.. everything is developing so quickly. This is scary =O

[jlauderdal]

FWIW, the 3 p.m. Barbados pressure reading looked like it came in at 1011 mb ... the lowest reading yet in the past few days. There certainly hasn't been any rapid deepening, but given the surface obs and the slight pressure decline, it could indicate a TD forming in the vicinity of that new "blob" just SW of Barbados.

The 205 trop discussion tells me they like the system and more importantly the environment out in front.


A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LIES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH A
WEAK 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS W 15-20 KT. PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE AREA WITH
SLY WINDS NOTED IN THE WINDWARDS S OF GRENADA AND ELY WINDS AT
BARBADOS. THERE ARE BANDING FEATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE E
SEMICIRCLE WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTMS ARE S OF 15N BETWEEN 56W-65W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 54W-60W APPROACHING
THE LEEWARD ISLAND. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS WAVE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS WIND
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK DURING ITS TREKS WESTWARD THRU
THE CARIBBEAN. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ESPECIALLY IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH INCREASED MOISTURE NOTED S
OF 15N W OF 50W.

[Weatherboy1]

Granada reporting W winds, and there was another SSW ob down in Trinidad. These stations also reported the same slight pressure drop (This is the site I use to find all this stuff, BTW:

http://www.weathermatrix.net/tropical/surface/interactive.shtml

So things seem to be progressing. Still not a heck of a lot of convection over the most likely "center." But if this thing can hold through overnight and gain some latitude, we could be in business.

-Mike

[Brent]

recon should be in there to determine whether or not this is a TD or a TS, not flying that cold front in the GOM if only one can be flown

They didn't have a problem last year with flying into Frances and Ivan or Gaston and Ivan or Ivan and Jeanne at the same time. I don't get it.

[Derek Ortt]

oh they had a big problem flying into Gaston.

Only hurricane that made landfall in the USA since recon started that didn't have a recon in it in its final 18 hours over the water

[wxman57]

Here's another shot. Note the 30kt winds at St. Lucia:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/dennis5.gif">

[Brent]

Is the NHC asleep on that one?

[Hurricaneman]

Paying all attention to the gulf, none to the carribean

[sunflowerkist]

The only thing that truly makes sense without flaming the government is that in the Gulf there is little evacuation notice time if the storm does blow up over night(circa Opal). There is plenty of warning time after the D storm leaves the Islands before it will be a danger to anyone, and lastly this is a holiday and from the looks of the season some very over worked pilots, emergency planning operators and Weather forecasters between now and November. So, This is the reasonable explanation.

[Derek Ortt]

a holiday is <b><u>NOT</b></u> a valid excuse for not working