The Future TD 4 Forming?

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Hyperstorm
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#21 Postby Hyperstorm » Mon Jul 04, 2005 1:22 pm

I just found the image for 17 Zulu time (1 pm AST). Here it is:

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_carib.gif

Here we go again...
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#22 Postby skywarn » Mon Jul 04, 2005 1:22 pm

Hyperstorm wrote:The system is looking very impressive...

Here's a link to the 2 pm observation which shows a WNW wind.

http://www.wunderground.com/global/TD.html

If I could only go back and get the 1 pm observation...Regardless, there is definitely a closed circulation in this system...


Bingo! I agree.
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#23 Postby Hyperstorm » Mon Jul 04, 2005 1:24 pm

The image updated to the 2 pm observation, but the general picture is that the system has a defined LLC that has got to become stronger. As I've been saying since yesterday, a reconaissance mission was warranted for the system today. I'm even more suprised one hasn't been scheduled for tomorrow. That may change...
Last edited by Hyperstorm on Mon Jul 04, 2005 1:28 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#24 Postby Guest » Mon Jul 04, 2005 1:24 pm

Why a tropical wave passes one normally gets variable winds.
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#25 Postby dhweather » Mon Jul 04, 2005 1:34 pm

Thanks for the screenshot wxman!!

I think it is getting much better organized - the hits just keep on coming.


That low latitude is close to Ivan's path, eh?
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#26 Postby Brent » Mon Jul 04, 2005 1:38 pm

dhweather wrote:That low latitude is close to Ivan's path, eh?


and Charley. Charley formed near Grenada which is very close to where a center with this will pass shortly.

Oh and Ivan went over Grenada.
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#27 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jul 04, 2005 2:42 pm

Here's a new shot of the future "TD-4 / Dennis":

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/dennis4.gif">
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#28 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 04, 2005 2:43 pm

Its looking better by the hour
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#29 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 04, 2005 2:45 pm

The only word to describe it is IMPRESSIVE.
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Does look better

#30 Postby Tommedic » Mon Jul 04, 2005 2:45 pm

It does seem that we may be seeing TD#4 today. Hey, #4 on the 4th, how appropriate.
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#31 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 04, 2005 2:46 pm

That would be ironic
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#32 Postby skysummit » Mon Jul 04, 2005 2:46 pm

That has to be a TD already looking at that image IMO. Maybe they'll upgrade it later this evening.
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#33 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jul 04, 2005 2:48 pm

to be perfectly honest, THERE IS NO REASON FOR NO RECON BEING IN THERE NOW, MUCH LESS TOMORROW.
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#34 Postby skysummit » Mon Jul 04, 2005 2:49 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:to be perfectly honest, THERE IS NO REASON FOR NO RECON BEING IN THERE NOW, MUCH LESS TOMORROW.


and why do you think this? It's clear there's at least a broad area of low pressure there.
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#35 Postby gkrangers » Mon Jul 04, 2005 2:52 pm

skysummit wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:to be perfectly honest, THERE IS NO REASON FOR NO RECON BEING IN THERE NOW, MUCH LESS TOMORROW.


and why do you think this? It's clear there's at least a broad area of low pressure there.
I have no idea what he actually meant, but that statement is saying there SHOULD be recon in there.
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#36 Postby Brent » Mon Jul 04, 2005 2:53 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:to be perfectly honest, THERE IS NO REASON FOR NO RECON BEING IN THERE NOW, MUCH LESS TOMORROW.


Exactly.

If TD 3 is a TD, then this wave should AT LEAST be TD 4 right now. Reminds me so much of Charley... NHC got caught off-guard.
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#37 Postby skysummit » Mon Jul 04, 2005 2:54 pm

gkrangers wrote:
skysummit wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:to be perfectly honest, THERE IS NO REASON FOR NO RECON BEING IN THERE NOW, MUCH LESS TOMORROW.


and why do you think this? It's clear there's at least a broad area of low pressure there.
I have no idea what he actually meant, but that statement is saying there SHOULD be recon in there.


Ok, I got it.....he put "NO" instead of "NOT" and I missunderstood the statement. Sorry Derek! :D
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#38 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 04, 2005 2:55 pm

Im gonna say well find out later
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Recon for TD/Den

#39 Postby sunflowerkist » Mon Jul 04, 2005 2:55 pm

I know you may not be able to reply to this, but being a Florida Resident and private citizen, my guess is that the funding for the weather recon has not been released yet because so much government spending has been moved around. The other reason I am guessing is that despite their own prophets, profits are getting in the way. The final thought is that they are depending on ground reports from the islands to let them know the severity while they spend money to recon this TD3 from Biloxi rather than out of McDill. Who knows, but I guess you can tell from this post that I think the money is the issue.
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#40 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jul 04, 2005 2:55 pm

recon should be in there to determine whether or not this is a TD or a TS, not flying that cold front in the GOM if only one can be flown
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