12z Nogaps-Florida hit

[Vortex]

Model guidance is coming into fairly good agreement that Invest97 will likely have an impact on at least Southern Fl. The greater Antilles should keep Td4 in check. I'll go out on a limb based on overall model guidance and the current and forecasted synoptic environment. I expect a 50kt storm in the vicinity of Florida/Keys. However, If the core goes over the most rugged terrain of Hispanolia then I dont expect more than a TD in the vicinity of Florida. If soon to be TD 4 passes near the mona passage and the core misses the most mountanious portion of the island limiting the destruction of the inner core than a 60-80kt storm is possible near Florida.


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2005070412

[Weatherboy1]

It looks like some models (ECMWF, CMC) are fairly aggressive in terms of developing 97. Others (this NOGAPS run, the GFS, etc.) seem to track nothing more than a weak wave/low. I think a lot depends on how soon it gets its act together and whether it can start moving WNW soon rather than due W (and possibly slow down a bit as well).

[BonesXL]

I live in south miami, looks a little concerning. By the way, I think I saw another model with the same general consensus in tracking.

[BonesXL]

The other model bringing it in this general direction.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation

[ericinmia]

As i have posted in other threads with more detail over the past couple days on this one.

First we don't have to worry too much abour a direct hit, at least not right now. The climatology supporting that is not around, or forcasted to be. Second this storm at MOST will be cat1, which is the equivalent of our sever afternoon thunderstorms. This is especially true for the mainland of SE FL, becuase this storm is going to pas to our south. Possibly going directly over the keys, more likely going over the straits or cuba itself.

THe ridge will most likely keep the storm south of us, and prevent us from getting much more than rain and some 30-40mph winds. The NWS miami also agree's with this meathodology.

But i guess we can all hope for some more rain. lol
-Eric

[jlauderdal]

As i have posted in other threads with more detail over the past couple days on this one.

First we don't have to worry too much abour a direct hit, at least not right now. The climatology supporting that is not around, or forcasted to be. Second this storm at MOST will be cat1, which is the equivalent of our sever afternoon thunderstorms. This is especially true for the mainland of SE FL, becuase this storm is going to pas to our south. Possibly going directly over the keys, more likely going over the straits or cuba itself.

THe ridge will most likely keep the storm south of us, and prevent us from getting much more than rain and some 30-40mph winds. The NWS miami also agree's with this meathodology.

But i guess we can all hope for some more rain. lol
-Eric

this would be really early for any significant action around here but anything can happen i guess. supposed to be real dry all week until our system gets into our hood.

[gkrangers]

Second this storm at MOST will be cat1, which is the equivalent of our sever afternoon thunderstorms.

I wish I was psychic like you.

[skysummit]

Second this storm at MOST will be cat1, which is the equivalent of our sever afternoon thunderstorms.

So your afternoon thunderstorms have sustained winds of 74mph and lasts about 1 1/2 days? WOW those are nasty.

[Roxy]

Second this storm at MOST will be cat1, which is the equivalent of our sever afternoon thunderstorms.

So your afternoon thunderstorms have sustained winds of 74mph and lasts about 1 1/2 days? WOW those are nasty.

[HurricaneJoe22]

A sereve thunderstom is NOT the equivalent and I don't know how anyone can make such a comparison. Get a clue please.

[Hurricaneman]

In a tropical system, the winds tend to be more sustained than in a severe thunderstorm

[jlauderdal]

As i have posted in other threads with more detail over the past couple days on this one.

First we don't have to worry too much abour a direct hit, at least not right now. The climatology supporting that is not around, or forcasted to be. Second this storm at MOST will be cat1, which is the equivalent of our sever afternoon thunderstorms. This is especially true for the mainland of SE FL, becuase this storm is going to pas to our south. Possibly going directly over the keys, more likely going over the straits or cuba itself.

THe ridge will most likely keep the storm south of us, and prevent us from getting much more than rain and some 30-40mph winds. The NWS miami also agree's with this meathodology.

But i guess we can all hope for some more rain. lol
-Eric

eric has been hangin out at shulas on main street in miami lakes this afternoon pounding drinks, give him a break

[EDR1222]

Here is an excerpt from the NWS Melbourne, FL Monday, July 4th afternoon discussion

SAT-MON...FORECAST LARGELY DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MODEL
GUIDANCE RANGES FROM THE EXTRAPOLATED NAM WHICH WOULD TAKE THE
SYSTEM EAST OF THE STATE THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...TO THE NOGAPS WHICH
TAKES THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE KEYS AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF. GFS IS
THE MOST OMINOUS WITH AN INTENSE CYCLONE TRACKING FROM MIA TO TPA
DURING THE WEEKEND. SEE THE LATEST NHC PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT THIS SYSTEM.

Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

[Hurricaneman]

Could be interesting for the FL panhandle

[Opal storm]

Could be interesting for the FL panhandle

I hope not.Although I'm getting a bad gut feeling about this wave,the models have it going to S FL but I bet you anything that will change,they always do.I'm not sure why it wouldn't take a similar path to TD#3,I would not be suprised at all if they shift towards the Gulf.

[ericinmia]

eric has been hangin out at shulas on main street in miami lakes this afternoon pounding drinks, give him a break

lol.... I had just woken up.

BUT, anyone who has experienced the fringe of a cat1 storm cant tell you FIRST you will not have sustained winds ANYWHERE near hurricane force, SECOND the storms will be blowing through quickly and intermitenly, THIRD there will be localized stronger winds/rain, but mostly weak to TS strength.

I don't appreciate people telling me to get a clue, especially considering you don't back up your insults with interpretation, proof, or any analysis.
Thanks,
-Eric

[TheShrimper]

It all depends on the structure of the hurricane. Each is unique, windfield, speed ect. Look at Floyd in comparison to Andrew or Charley. Do they look alike? No, not at all. Now go back to sleep.

[Josephine96]

I'm not ready for another hurricane yet in the Peninsula lol.. NOT.. Bring it on.. lol

Seriously.. If he can survive the terrain he's gonna encounter, he may have a fighting shot at strengthening as he approaches..

Something tells me this week will be interesting for Wal mart's official hurricane guru lol

[MGC]

My initial thoughts on the Carb system is that it will pass south of the Florida peninsula. I thing the models are initializing the center too far north......MGC

[skywarn]

My initial thoughts on the Carb system is that it will pass south of the Florida peninsula. I thing the models are initializing the center too far north......MGC

I agree. I think this will be a low tracker possibly following TD 3.