11am TD 3-30 mph winds, 1010 mb

[Air Force Met]

I see what you mean. BUT with how the system is progged to curve, wouldn't a more northern relocation of the center (not the motion) mean it will get much closer to the coast before it turns. Whereas if the center was more south and direction stayed the same, the storm would have more time to curve. In relationship to this system and location you have to take into account the shape of the NW Gulf coastline and the timing of any synoptic features that may steer it.

Not if the system is bumping up against the ridge...and is weaker...meaning it will be steered more by low level flow. \

Here is an image link to show the flow a weaker system would be embedded in right now...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[Air Force Met]

ONe thing I would like to add...with the depression remaining weak...and the large amount of convection to the north...there is always the possibility that that could pull it more NNW...it's not a true movement but more reformation...but the end result is it does track more east.

Again...it is ALL about where it finally gets its act together.

[Roxy]

ONe thing I would like to add...with the depression remaining weak...and the large amount of convection to the north...there is always the possibility that that could pull it more NNW...it's not a true movement but more reformation...but the end result is it does track more east.

Again...it is ALL about where it finally gets its act together.

well this morning it sure sounds like Houston is out of the picture, which is good beacuse we don't really want a storm..but bad because we sure could use the rain.

I hope those on the N. Gulf coast are paying attention!

[HouTXmetro]

I see what you mean. BUT with how the system is progged to curve, wouldn't a more northern relocation of the center (not the motion) mean it will get much closer to the coast before it turns. Whereas if the center was more south and direction stayed the same, the storm would have more time to curve. In relationship to this system and location you have to take into account the shape of the NW Gulf coastline and the timing of any synoptic features that may steer it.

Not if the system is bumping up against the ridge...and is weaker...meaning it will be steered more by low level flow. \

Here is an image link to show the flow a weaker system would be embedded in right now...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

AFM you just reinforced what I was stating. I am in agreement with you that the landfall zone really won't shift east under the current situation.

[HouTXmetro]

ONe thing I would like to add...with the depression remaining weak...and the large amount of convection to the north...there is always the possibility that that could pull it more NNW...it's not a true movement but more reformation...but the end result is it does track more east.

Again...it is ALL about where it finally gets its act together.

I understand now.

[Wnghs2007]

So after it makes landfall, where does it remnants and rainfall go? According to the NHC it almost looks to turn to 70 or 80 degrees, basically ENE. What do yall think

[wxman57]

Here's a visible shot with the 18Z 500mb (as predicted by GFS) overlaid. You can see that it's on the western side of the mid-level ridge now.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/cindy6.gif">

[lacyclone]

Believe me, we're paying attention! We just had a weather alert concerning TD 3 crawl across the bottom of the screen during my husband's favorite soap!

[Air Force Met]

For what it's worth (and I only include this because yesterdays runs had the right idea and were spot on)...the GFS tracks a weaker system into the middle TX coast...near Matagorda. If the system stays weak...then this is a good possibility...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_060m.gif

[wxman57]

Here's the same satellite with 18Z 700mb GFS heights:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/cindy6.gif">

[wxman57]

And, to round out the series, here's the same satellte with 850mb heights plotted. Note that the lower level flow would take it to the Texas coast. However, if it strengthens to a TS, a northerly turn is likely.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/cindy8.gif">

[ROCK]

Wonderful, another week of 108 heat indexs and another month of no rain. I was really hoping for a break with this thing.

[Galvestongirl]

you and me both, roxy,after seeing everyones opinion on where this is going, I am very confused, alomost as confused as the system itsself...so, therefore, I will just wait and see

[Stratosphere747]

As of now, nobody really knows where it is going. Untill there is a true center of circulation.