Models shift east on 00Z run

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mobilebay
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#21 Postby mobilebay » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:29 am

00Z gfdl southwest Louisiana!
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05070405
Last edited by mobilebay on Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Hurricaneman
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#22 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:30 am

The track looks like it will verify, but hurricanes don't strengthen over land
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#23 Postby MWatkins » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:34 am

mobilebay wrote:00Z gfdl southwest Louisiana!
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05070405


I have a feeling that the ridging to the east of the cyclone is overdone (in the previous set of models)...and that the system indeed won't make it past 94W.

Of course...the synoptic drops will help some...but this is looking more and more like an LA landfall than a TX landfall...to my tired and sunburnt eyes.

Tomorrow is a big day...but the biggest question remains intensity.

Going to be an intersting 4th to be sure.

MW
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#24 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:35 am

I agree Mike
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AL Chili Pepper
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#25 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:40 am

mobilebay wrote:00Z gfdl southwest Louisiana!
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05070405


The GFDL slows it way down as it nears the coast. Hope it doesn't do a Danny on somebody.

My prediction is still Houston to Vermillion Bay....Lake Charles. Cat II.
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#26 Postby skysummit » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:45 am

AL Chili Pepper wrote:
mobilebay wrote:00Z gfdl southwest Louisiana!
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05070405


The GFDL slows it way down as it nears the coast. Hope it doesn't do a Danny on somebody.

My prediction is still Houston to Vermillion Bay....Lake Charles. Cat II.


When you say "way down", are you referring to pressure?
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#27 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:47 am

I think he meant in terms of forward speed
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#28 Postby skysummit » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:48 am

Hurricaneman wrote:I think he meant in terms of forward speed


my bad....I read "shows" instead of "slows". My eyes must be more tired than what I thought.
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#29 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:59 am

BTW, it's easy to see what the NWS in Jackson and Tallahassee were talking about in terms of the short-wave trough and how it could possibly play a factor down the road. WV shows a massive area of dry air over TX, with a SW to NE flow out ahead of it near the coast. I'm too lazy to look at what the 3 day forecast is for that (maybe it'll lift out), but it sure looks pretty iffy to me that it makes it as far west as Houston looking at this satellite loop. Big download....need DSL.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=8
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#30 Postby gkrangers » Mon Jul 04, 2005 1:12 am

About the ridging....one of the AFDs tonight said the models were actually underdoing the eastern gom ridge.
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#31 Postby southerngale » Mon Jul 04, 2005 1:17 am

gkrangers wrote:About the ridging....one of the AFDs tonight said the models were actually underdoing the eastern gom ridge.


Yeah, I've heard both. Go figure.

Wait and see I guess.
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