Models shift east on 00Z run

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mobilebay
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Models shift east on 00Z run

#1 Postby mobilebay » Sun Jul 03, 2005 11:41 pm

All the models I,ve seen on the 00Z run shifts east (ETA,NOGAPS,CMC), I'm not even counting the GFS which is in the twilight Zone. Also, the GFDL shifted East on it's last run. THe only model's I can find that has a texas landfall s the BAMM models.l :D

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... rp&tau=072

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 92_100.gif

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... hour=072hr
Last edited by mobilebay on Sun Jul 03, 2005 11:57 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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#2 Postby LSU2001 » Sun Jul 03, 2005 11:44 pm

how far east?
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#3 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Jul 03, 2005 11:44 pm

The models depict a bad situation for NOLA
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#4 Postby Anonymous » Sun Jul 03, 2005 11:45 pm

Images???
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#5 Postby LSU2001 » Sun Jul 03, 2005 11:46 pm

newbie question,

What runs of the models are considered to be the most accurate? I read something the other day about models being better on some runs than others.
Tim
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#6 Postby skysummit » Sun Jul 03, 2005 11:50 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:The models depict a bad situation for NOLA


Well if the models show a bad situation for NOLA tonight, I'm sure they shift even further east.
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#7 Postby Viper54r » Sun Jul 03, 2005 11:52 pm

You went/go to DSHS Lsu2001?
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#8 Postby LSU2001 » Sun Jul 03, 2005 11:53 pm

nope Redemptorist Grad 1985
LSU grad 2001,2004
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#9 Postby lilbump3000 » Sun Jul 03, 2005 11:55 pm

Models probably be now showing a SW to central louisiana landfall, but with the high building in the eastern gulf, I just dont see this making landfall no futher east than 90W or New Orleans.
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#10 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:03 am

It will probably make landfall on the TX/LA border
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#11 Postby mobilebay » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:06 am

Hurricaneman wrote:It will probably make landfall on the TX/LA border

Maybe? I'm interested to see what the 00Z GFDL has to say, lets see if it shifts East again. It will be out in 30-40 minutes. :D
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#12 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:13 am

you watch, it will end up hitting the panhandle of FL somehow!
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#13 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:14 am

I feel that Florida Panhandle should also be vigilant about this too
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#14 Postby skysummit » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:15 am

Heck, it's still wide open for the entire north half of the Gulf Coast.
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#15 Postby mobilebay » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:17 am

Ive noticed on most of the globals it showed much of the Weather (convection) on the East side. They are showing a sheared system.
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#16 Postby skysummit » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:20 am

Look at IR loop. Those clouds coming from the BOC seems to be actually putting a "dint" into the northern outflow of TD3.
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#17 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:21 am

I think youre right
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#18 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:23 am

Oh, I'll go ahead and throw in an early predicition...between Abbeville, LA and Morgan City, LA as a Category 1 hurricane. :D
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#19 Postby Stratosphere747 » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:25 am

Don't look at the IR....
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#20 Postby skysummit » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:25 am

Sean in New Orleans wrote:Oh, I'll go ahead and throw in an early predicition...between Abbeville, LA and Morgan City, LA as a Category 1 hurricane. :D


Wow....that's a narrow window Sean! :D
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