0Z GFS paints nasty picture for Florida

YouTube · #1 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Sun Jul 03, 2005 11:37 pm

Maybe the GFS is on to something this time, who knows? But the 0Z GFS shows a nice cyclone coming up through the Greater Antilles and then into southern Florida- the Keys, etc. Take a look too at the 200mb levels- what ever cyclone is there would be sitting right under the big 200mb high- with sweet outflow channels in every quad. This is assuming that I know what I am looking at- but still, it's quite foreboding to say the least. We will have to certainly watch "Dennis???" to be closely.

kevin · #2 Postby **kevin** » Sun Jul 03, 2005 11:38 pm

Well if so, we know what to do.

Ola · #3 Postby **Ola** » Sun Jul 03, 2005 11:40 pm

Yeah I posted this on the 97 thread:

New GFS at 00 is interesting. It takes the wave and develops it just suouth of Puerto Rico and then takes it across Hispaniola up torwards the Bahamas heading torwards Florida as a Tropical Cyclone

in 48 hours:

in 96 hours:

120 hours:

Scorpion · #4 Postby **Scorpion** » Sun Jul 03, 2005 11:40 pm

Normally this would excite me, but then again its the GFS :roll:

.

Ola · #5 Postby **Ola** » Sun Jul 03, 2005 11:42 pm

Scorpion wrote:Normally this would excite me, but then again its the GFS .

Yes it is the GFS, which by the way is probably the best short-midrange model on earth and it is forecasting development in the short-mid term, not in the long range. I would put some weight on this.

Swimdude · #6 Postby **Swimdude** » Sun Jul 03, 2005 11:43 pm

Scorpion wrote:Normally this would excite me, but then again its the GFS .

That about sums it up for me. [Well, including the following.] There's no doubt in my mind that Florida will get a storm this year. It protrudes so far into the Gulf that the chances are huge. So perhaps this will be one of them?

Scorpion · #7 Postby **Scorpion** » Sun Jul 03, 2005 11:44 pm

Maybe since this isn't long range I will put more consideration in it. How strong is the cyclone depicted by the GFS? Looks maybe TS to me.

Ola · #8 Postby **Ola** » Sun Jul 03, 2005 11:52 pm

Scorpion wrote:Maybe since this isn't long range I will put more consideration in it. How strong is the cyclone depicted by the GFS? Looks maybe TS to me.

TS but remember that the GFS is not for predicting TC strenght. If it were to develop then look at the SHIPS which is based of the GFS but is made to predict strenght, not the GFS.

Decomdoug · #9 Postby **Decomdoug** » Sun Jul 03, 2005 11:57 pm

Please don't tell me that we are going to pick up right where we left off last year. After 4 in '04, we have exceeded our bag limit in south Fl.
:shocked!:

Hurricaneman · #10 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sun Jul 03, 2005 11:58 pm

I wouldn't totally rely on the GFS

Scorpion · #11 Postby **Scorpion** » Sun Jul 03, 2005 11:59 pm

CMC shows similar scenario.

Hurricaneman · #12 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:00 am

If that comes true, I woulnt want to be the east coast of Florida

#13 Postby **ericinmia** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:12 am

The canadian and the gfs have been hinting this for a little while, more notably, the Euro also has. This has been trending more on than off through that past half week+ of model runs. It has slowly developed into a more prominant feature however.

The past couple days though the euro has killed it off, and has it passing over hispanola and then into the carribean as pretty much nothing.
-Eric

I would wait another couple days before making a decision on this one, there are soo many variables, and if's.

Personally, i believe this will pass just south of the florida peninsula... giving us some more rain, but that is it.

mobilebay · #14 Postby **mobilebay** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:14 am

ericinmia wrote:The canadian and the gfs have been hinting this for a little while, more notably, the Euro also has. This has been trending more on than off through that past half week+ of model runs. It has slowly developed into a more prominant feature however.

The past couple days though the euro has killed it off, and has it passing over hispanola and then into the carribean as pretty much nothing.
-Eric

I would wait another couple days before making a decision on this one, there are soo many variables, and if's.

Personally, i believe this will pass just south of the florida peninsula... giving us some more rain, but that is it.

You trying to convince us or yourself. I hope for your sake your Right. :lol:

#15 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:18 am

If it goes south of the penninsula, that means another GOM storm.

#16 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:18 am

Please don't tell me that we are going to pick up right where we left off last year. After 4 in '04, we have exceeded our bag limit in south Fl.

Port St. Lucie is NOT south Florida I'm sorry!

#17 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:18 am

Please don't tell me that we are going to pick up right where we left off last year. After 4 in '04, we have exceeded our bag limit in south Fl.

Port St. Lucie is NOT S. Florida!

Decomdoug · #18 Postby **Decomdoug** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:24 am

boca_chris wrote:Please don't tell me that we are going to pick up right where we left off last year. After 4 in '04, we have exceeded our bag limit in south Fl.

Port St. Lucie is NOT south Florida I'm sorry!

Never ment to say it was. I should have said, FL as a whole. But, we got 2 here head on last year, and some folks have not been able to get thier roofs repaired yet. Another storm would be bad right now. By the way, I moved up here from Boca to enjoy a little more relaxed life style. Still as crazy down there as ever? :yow:

0Z GFS paints nasty picture for Florida

0Z GFS paints nasty picture for Florida

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