OK. This is my first analysis thread over on Storm2K, so I'm going to get right into it.
First off, I will explain the graphic above. The blue line shows the overall flow pattern and ridge, which may be weakening as the system enters the GOM. The purple shows the circulation around where I think the LLC is located, with the red showing outflow patterns. Lastly, the yellow shows the track.
OK. Now into analysis. The storm is beginning to move over the Yucatan and therefore will pretty much stop intensifying for 12-18 hours. However, there may be a quick burst that could bring it up to a TS before completely entering the Yucatan. It will be interesting to see what the 11 AM advisory says.
After it emerges into the SW GOM, it should begin to slow down as the steering pattern weakens. This could be a period on late Monday into Tuesday where a good amount of intensification occurs. The system will be going over some very warm watter eddies in the GOM. By late Tuesday, the system should start to slowly re-curve and could be a Cat1/Cat2 hurricane. Then, it should make landfall in LA somewhere around Wed. night or Thurs. My intensity for now would be around 105 mph at landfall.
Stay tuned for updates from me as the system progresses.
