SHIFTING EAST

[Ivanhater]

new update says she is moving NW still and may be contributed to relocation and mentions the frontal passage and could possibly move due east..if this is the case everyone on the gulfcoast including florida needs to keep a close eye

[gkrangers]

Ok, the only mention of due east is pretty much at the time of landfall or after it..don't make it sound like something its not. Something with as much inertia as a hurricane takes time to turn that whole mass 90 degrees!

[Ivanhater]

calm down... i didnt say it IS moving due east.. i just said what the NHC said and its not even a hurricane so saying it will take a while to turn is a little premature

[gkrangers]

The point is, due eastward movement won't occur for days, if at all. Its not going to get into the GOM and make a beeline for Naples. Just the way you summed up the whole discussion without including the time tables or specifics...which..summing up the discussion is pretty pointless because the discussion itself is a sum of all their thoughts.

Premature? This is going to be a strong TS or "weak" hurricane...they don't turn on a dime.

[rainstorm]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=144hr

i think a due east turn is very unlikely

[Ivanhater]

i didnt say it was moving due east and if you have a problem with that statement you need to talk to the NHC which says it...i didnt think saying everyone along the gulfcoast should keep a close eye on this system is bad...usually that helps

[feederband]

The point is, due eastward movement won't occur for days, if at all. Its not going to get into the GOM and make a beeline for Naples. Just the way you summed up the whole discussion without including the time tables or specifics...which..summing up the discussion is pretty pointless because the discussion itself is a sum of all their thoughts.

Premature? This is going to be a strong TS or "weak" hurricane...they don't turn on a dime.

No but I've seen them stop on a dime then turn.....

[gkrangers]

Ok...look at the title of the thread!

Well then I say good luck to breaking through the Bermuda high if its going to move east and hit Florida...its not. Might as well alert the Carolinas too while you are at it.

[Ivanhater]

hmm well im glad you can rule out a whole state especially when the panhandle extends to far west... but if you want to make that call feel free, just glad people are not getting official info from you

[Javlin]

Anyone who thinks a turn cannot happen needs to remember Elena in 85.A map out to 144hrs is about 60-72 hrs after landfall of the supposed system means nothing.All I am saying is be like the hound on the porch keep one eye open.

[Ivanhater]

exactly casper, storms have and will change, so saying people all along the gulf coast including florida shouldnt be on alert is foolish

[LSU2001]

gkrangers,
Please don't take this as a flame or any type of bashing, but the title of the thread does say "Shifting East" in my mind this does not even remotely imply the the storm is Moving East. I thought the the implication of the first post was that ivanhater felt that everyone on the coast should pay close attention.
I find that on this board shooting down someones "forecast" or "Ideas" because it does not agree with our own opinions is counterproductive. Yesterday or the day before one of our best professional mets said that " this system has about a .00000001 % chance of developing" yet the storm has developed and quite significantly. Another poster this one an amature said that it would develop and probably become a TD before the yucatan and it has. Our best minds put a lot of effort into thinking about all of the complicated variables that determine the outcome of these systems and I think that it is wise to listen to all posters about their ideas. Personally I do not have the knowledge, background, or education to make such detailed forecasts and have nothing but respect for those who do. Please stop bashing every forecast that does not agree with yours.
Not being confrontational but only making a suggestion,
Thanks,
TIm

[gkrangers]

gkrangers,
Please don't take this as a flame or any type of bashing, but the title of the thread does say "Shifting East" in my mind this does not even remotely imply the the storm is Moving East. I thought the the discussion was well thought out and backed up by the logic and analysis that wxboy felt was relevant. I find that on this board shooting down someones "forecast" because it does not agree with our own opinions is counterproductive. Yesterday or the day before one of our best professional mets said that " this system has about a .00000001 % chance of developing" yet the storm has developed and quite significantly. Another poster this one an amature said that it would develop and probably become a TD before the yucatan and it has. Our best minds put a lot of effort into thinking about all of the complicated variables that determine the outcome of these systems and I think that it is wise to listen to all posters about their ideas. Personally I do not have the knowledge, background, or education to make such detailed forecasts and have nothing but respect for those who do. Please stop bashing every forecast that does not agree with yours.
Not being confrontational but only making a suggestion,
Thanks,
TIm

Ok..I didn't see wxboy post in this thread, so you lost me there. Its not bashing, but people often intentionally title threads and make posts that are misleading. Turning eastward is kind of a major thing. So someone stating it could turn eastward, without stating when or why, to me, is irresponsible of them.

I don't bash forecasts, and I don't expect mine to be bashed either.

[feederband]

As Stern would say "hey now"

[LSU2001]

gkrangers,
I agree with you on making major statements or hypeing a storm however simply saying that everyone should watch is not doing that IMHO. I screwed up the post and got two different threads confused so take my opinion for what it is worth. I just hate to see people shot down without just cause,
Tim

[Ivanhater]

hmm saying it could turn eastward without giving any reasons, i thought i mentioned the possible relocation and the frontal passage?? again, if you dispute it turning eastward i again say take it up with the NHC

[gkrangers]

gkrangers,
I agree with you on making major statements or hypeing a storm however simply saying that everyone should watch is not doing that IMHO. I screwed up the post and got two different threads confused so take my opinion for what it is worth. I just hate to see people shot down without just cause,
Tim

I didn't even post in wxboy's thread...

Anyway, there is nothing wrong with being cautious. People in the panhandle should keep an eye on things. But I think Florida lucks out on this one.

[fci]

gkrangers,
Please don't take this as a flame or any type of bashing, but the title of the thread does say "Shifting East" in my mind this does not even remotely imply the the storm is Moving East. I thought the the discussion was well thought out and backed up by the logic and analysis that wxboy felt was relevant. I find that on this board shooting down someones "forecast" because it does not agree with our own opinions is counterproductive. Yesterday or the day before one of our best professional mets said that " this system has about a .00000001 % chance of developing" yet the storm has developed and quite significantly. Another poster this one an amature said that it would develop and probably become a TD before the yucatan and it has. Our best minds put a lot of effort into thinking about all of the complicated variables that determine the outcome of these systems and I think that it is wise to listen to all posters about their ideas. Personally I do not have the knowledge, background, or education to make such detailed forecasts and have nothing but respect for those who do. Please stop bashing every forecast that does not agree with yours.
Not being confrontational but only making a suggestion,
Thanks,
TIm

Ok..I didn't see wxboy post in this thread, so you lost me there. Its not bashing, but people often intentionally title threads and make posts that are misleading. Turning eastward is kind of a major thing. So someone stating it could turn eastward, without stating when or why, to me, is irresponsible of them.

I don't bash forecasts, and I don't expect mine to be bashed either.

This from the Discussion as part of the 10:00 PM advisory:
"steering factor as it weakens and
lifts out to the north-northwest. All of the global models and the
GFDL also agree that the subtropical ridge lying east-west along
28n latitude from Florida across the northern Gulf of Mexico will
remain in place through the period. A vigorous shortwave trough
currently over Arkansas and Louisiana is expected to move quickly
eastward...but in its wake leave a weakness in the ridge axis over
the northwestern Gulf along 94-95w longitude. This is expected to
be the path of least resistance for the cyclone to take until it
nears the Texas-Louisiana coast and is turned sharply northeast or
even eastward as the system encounters moderate upper-level
westerlies"

So an Eastward turn just before landfall IS given as a possibility

[LSU2001]

btw,
I too think that Fla. is out of the picture with this one but it is wise to always watch the tropics closely. I have learned the hard way, Never turn you back to the sea!! like I said I got two threads confused you had noting to do with my screwup. I know you did not post in that thread. Again Sorry!!!
TIm

[gkrangers]

hmm saying it could turn eastward without giving any reasons, i thought i mentioned the possible relocation and the frontal passage?? again, if you dispute it turning eastward i again say take it up with the NHC

Thats not the point. I know what the discussion said. Turning eastward when? Your post, in my opinion, sounded like you were talking about the short term. You did not say it was a summary of the discussion, so somebody who hadn't read it might misunderstand you.

I didn't mean to offend you so much, but I don't think its much to ask to be more clear next time. Or ya could just post a link to the discussion instead and avoid confusion...