whats going on???

[freeport_texas22]

ok i live in freeport_tx about 30 milles south of galvestion..first im hearing texas then la..now its shifting further to the east around miss. alba...i live right on the beach so when do yall think we r gunna get a good read on where this is "probally" gunna go east or west..cuz if this thing gets stronger i dunt wanna wait around here trying to get a good read on where this thing is gunna go..i ehard something was gunna make it go more to the east??.. .anyone have any thoughts?

[tw861]

ok i live in freeport_tx about 30 milles south of galvestion..first im hearing texas then la..now its shifting further to the east around miss. alba...i live right on the beach so when do yall think we r gunna get a good read on where this is "probally" gunna go east or west..cuz if this thing gets stronger i dunt wanna wait around here trying to get a good read on where this thing is gunna go..i ehard something was gunna make it go more to the east??.. .anyone have any thoughts?

Well, the current NHC forecast runs it right through your backyard. Of course that is all subject to change since the cyclone is still consolidating in the process of getting better organized. You should keep a close watch on the situation and be preparded for worsening weather condtions Tuesday-Wednesday. We will know more tommorow.

[wxman57]

Highly unlikely it's going to MS/AL. Texas coast is under the gun with this one. You could quite possibly be under a hurricane watch by surnise Tuesday and a hurricane warning by sunset Tuesday. Tomorrow would be your best day to get supplies if you need to board up, as it'll be a mad house down there on Tuesday.

[uknowmeitsmattp]

If I were you, I wouldn't worry. I bet you won't get a drop of rain from this system.

[freeport_texas22]

Hey thanks for replying!...yeah i got all my stuff i just want to make sure i get a good grasp on this before i start moving stuff and boarding up my beach house lol

[tw861]

If I were you, I wouldn't worry. I bet you won't get a drop of rain from this system.

Ok if you say so. Why so confident? That's pretty bad advice considering this person lives on the coast. They have every reason to be concerned right now.

[wx247]

If I were you, I wouldn't worry. I bet you won't get a drop of rain from this system.

Very uncalled for.

[sweetpea]

If I were you, I wouldn't worry. I bet you won't get a drop of rain from this system.

Are you kidding me??????

[cycloneye]

If I were you, I wouldn't worry. I bet you won't get a drop of rain from this system.

That statement is not a good one to make.Please dont make those kinds of statements again.

[freeport_texas22]

just seen the model plots....hmmmm...i dunno what to think of them!

[tw861]

If I were you, I wouldn't worry. I bet you won't get a drop of rain from this system.

That statement is not a good one to make.Please dont make those kinds of statements again.

Only five posts Cycloneye, looks like someone just trying to stir people up.

[deguy50]

If I were you, I wouldn't worry. I bet you won't get a drop of rain from this system.

[uknowmeitsmattp]

History shows that when a hurricane is 3 or more days away in the Gulf, it almost always hits a good 200 or more miles east of where NHC says it will. Thought you guys knew that by now... already happened this year with Arlene and it's happened many times in the past. I'd focus more on the GFDL as a likely point of landfall, and I expect other models to shift east as it gets closer.

[freeport_texas22]

In the earlier poll for landfall, I said SE Louisiana based on synoptics and
a gut feel. The models have shifted a bit to the right, and I expect they
will do more moving to the right tomorrow.

I think we're looking at Lake Charles to Pascagoula for landfall, in my opinion.

so if thats the case i dunt have nuttin to worry about?

[uknowmeitsmattp]

In the earlier poll for landfall, I said SE Louisiana based on synoptics and
a gut feel. The models have shifted a bit to the right, and I expect they
will do more moving to the right tomorrow.

I think we're looking at Lake Charles to Pascagoula for landfall, in my opinion.

so if thats the case i dunt have nuttin to worry about?

Yes, that is the most likely scenario. Don't latch on to the NHC model 3 days from landfall like these other people... make your own judgement. I can't disagree there is a decent chance you could be affected in some way, I think we will know tomorrow morning where Texas is ruled out as a place of landfall.

[gkrangers]

In the earlier poll for landfall, I said SE Louisiana based on synoptics and
a gut feel. The models have shifted a bit to the right, and I expect they
will do more moving to the right tomorrow.

I think we're looking at Lake Charles to Pascagoula for landfall, in my opinion.

so if thats the case i dunt have nuttin to worry about?

No, you have every right to be concerned. In time, thinking will probably adjust further east. But you are definitely in the zone right now. The way this season is looking, you may need the plywood and generator at some point anyway.

[tw861]

In the earlier poll for landfall, I said SE Louisiana based on synoptics and
a gut feel. The models have shifted a bit to the right, and I expect they
will do more moving to the right tomorrow.

I think we're looking at Lake Charles to Pascagoula for landfall, in my opinion.

so if thats the case i dunt have nuttin to worry about?

Absolutely not true at all. You need to keep a very close eye on this storm. As I said earlier we should have a better idea tommorow.

[southerngale]

In the earlier poll for landfall, I said SE Louisiana based on synoptics and
a gut feel. The models have shifted a bit to the right, and I expect they
will do more moving to the right tomorrow.

I think we're looking at Lake Charles to Pascagoula for landfall, in my opinion.

so if thats the case i dunt have nuttin to worry about?

Yes, that is the most likely scenario. Don't latch on to the NHC model 3 days from landfall like these other people... make your own judgement. I can't disagree there is a decent chance you could be affected in some way, I think we will know tomorrow morning where Texas is ruled out as a place of landfall.

Freeport, you should ALWAYS listen to the NHC over a poster on the board, particularly a new member who doesn't seem to have a real basis for his prediction, besides "it usually shifts right"

[kevin]

If you don't understand the differences among the models and what they are showing, it is best (as always) to listen to the NHC.

[uknowmeitsmattp]

I'd say there is a 75% chance you will be on the west side. How strong the west side will be remains to be seen.