BREAKING NEWS:Special Statement,Cindy before reaching Yuc

[raynpa]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
628 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THREE IS CONTINUING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...

AT 630 PM CDT...2330Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL...
INCLUDING THE BANCO CHINCORRO ISLANDS.

SHORTLY BEFORE 6 PM CDT...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO 1007 MB
AND THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAD INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS
REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. THIS MEANS THAT
THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER WARM WATER A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...WHICH MAY ALLOW IT TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

AN INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 PM CDT...
0000Z...AND NHC FORECAST GRAPHICS PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED
IMMEDIATELY TO REFLECT THE NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Air Force Met]

I think "REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY" should probably be rephrased to "IS REFORMING FURTHER NORTH."

Once this thing gets stacked and into the GOM...watch out. The fact it is getting more stacked now...instead of having to wait...is not good news.

[mikey mike]

what does ‘‘stacked’’ mean AirForce Met?

[gkrangers]

A northern reformation of the center also shifts the cone of doom further east.

[Brent]

I want my mommy!!!

[gkrangers]

what does ‘‘stacked’’ mean AirForce Met?

Possibly the LLC migrating to underneath the MLC.

Or that the storm is going to kick some butt when it emerges into the gulf....

[cycloneye]

what does ‘‘stacked’’ mean AirForce Met?

Means that the LLC and the Mid Level Circulation are joined one to another.

[Brent]

what does ‘‘stacked’’ mean AirForce Met?

It means the MLC and LLC are together... in a well-developed storm such as a hurricane that is the case. In a weaker system that's not the case and inhibits strengthening. So... once they get stacked, strengthening is much more likely.

[MWatkins]

Yet another example of what an excellent forecaster Mr Stewart is. He could have waited to pass that on...or written an updated package at 8PM...but instead...the information gets out almost immediately.

Hopefully it doesnt stall out much longer...the implications for a stall are 2 fold. More time over water now and more of a rightward track later (more time for the pattern to evolve to the north).

My initial gut feel here was that the system would go to the left and perhaps come in south of the TX/MX border.

However...given what has happened today I may have to back off of that. I have been completely out of the loop this weekend as I have had the entire weekend to spend some time with the brats. But...looks like I may be back at it faster than I thought.

Also...(I haven't heard this from anywhere yet) and one other impact of the system slowing down...is if it stalls long enough...it could also have some down the road impact on where the wave in the Central Atlantic goes if it develops...since the models aren't seeing TD3 they are not showing it impacting the flow pattern much.

I should be around a bit later on.

Is this Early August or early July?

MW

[MGC]

Yep, the MLC near Cozumel should become the dominate circulation in time. Less Yucatan to cross, system vertically stacked with a open fetch of warm GOM waters to transverse.......MGC

[MWatkins]

I think "REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY" should probably be rephrased to "IS REFORMING FURTHER NORTH."

Once this thing gets stacked and into the GOM...watch out. The fact it is getting more stacked now...instead of having to wait...is not good news.

Good point...I thought that as I was writing but forgot to actually include that point. That is probably what is happening as the relatively poorly defined center redevelops nearest the thunderstorms.

Looks like there's a G4 mission tomorrow? Hopefully this will actually help the models this year.

MW

[Brent]

Is this Early August or early July?

Well... I keep hearing tomorrow is July 4th... so

I'm dreading Late August/September at this point. Better stock up on sleep now.

[Guest]

I thought I covered stacked systems and the boobs present in the gulf earlier today.

[gkrangers]

Well it can't hurt the GFS right now..

[Derek Ortt]

I dont want to tip my hand for the 11 p.m. forecast...


but I can say the new landfall intensity will be SIGNIFICANTLY higher than 70KT

[dhweather]

what does ‘‘stacked’’ mean AirForce Met?

It means getting the low-level circulation vertically lined up with the
mid-level curculation, hence, stacked.

[Brent]

I dont want to tip my hand for the 11 p.m. forecast...


but I can say the new landfall intensity will be SIGNIFICANTLY higher than 70KT

I would agree...

[JTD]

Wow. T.D. #3 certainly has my undivided attention now. This sounds omnious but interesting.

[Air Force Met]

A northern reformation of the center also shifts the cone of doom further east.

Not necessarily. The cone is really not defined that well yet. The upper ridge is still building into the GOm through Wed...so...the cone is still in the same area. A weak disjointed LLC like we saw earlier should have had the cone more to the west anyway.

[southerngale]

I dont want to tip my hand for the 11 p.m. forecast...


but I can say the new landfall intensity will be SIGNIFICANTLY higher than 70KT

Why? Because the LLC might relocate? I thought that might affect the track, but the landfall intensity too?