Tropical Depression may be forming just E of islands...

#41 Postby **drezee** » Sun Jul 03, 2005 9:16 am

New ob from 41040:

Highest 1 minute Wind Speed
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
1206 29.1 kts E ( 88 deg true )
34 mph sustained

Scorpion · #42 Postby **Scorpion** » Sun Jul 03, 2005 9:26 am

Very interesting... its looking very good this morning as is 96L. We might have two systems to track.

stormchazer · #43 Postby **stormchazer** » Sun Jul 03, 2005 10:56 am

Storms is a bit spread and after the blowup yesterday, it dissipated some. If it gets more concentrated around the Low and persist, then we may have two players close to the the SE US.

.....and its only July 3rd!

#44 Postby **george_r_1961** » Sun Jul 03, 2005 11:07 am

drezee wrote:That is 32 mph sustained winds on the N side of the Wave.

Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
1944 27.4 kts E ( 85 deg true )

Remember on the north side of the wave the winds are easterly, so part of that wind is the forward component added on to the the "actual" wind. While I agree this system needs to be watched in the long term there is little chance of development over the next few days.

#45 Postby **MGC** » Sun Jul 03, 2005 11:10 am

This wave IMO will not develope in the short term. Give it a few days until it reaches the central Carb sea......MGC

Ola · #46 Postby **Ola** » Sun Jul 03, 2005 1:06 pm

2:05 TWD

Strong W atlc tropical wave is tilted from E Guyana to 17n50w
with a broad 1013 mb low along the wave near 11n55w as the whole
system moves W 15 kt. This wave has gotten better-organized
overnight with NE to NW winds observed in the Windward Islands S
of Barbados and sly winds over Guyana eastward thru French
guiana. Some banding-type features are trying to form W of the
wave axis though high resolution visible images are not showing
any closed circulation winds. Regardless of development...
showers and tstms with gusty winds are overspreading the
Windward Islands with stormy weather forecast for at least the
part few days of the week due to the large size and moisture
envelope of the wave. Scattered tstms cover the area from
9n-14n between 54w-61w with more widely scattered activity from
8n-15n between 45w-54w.

Wnghs2007 · #47 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Sun Jul 03, 2005 1:12 pm

ECMWF...forms this into a system of sometype based on the 30 m winds and moves it through the Carribean and onshore to the Yucatan Pennisula. This was from yesterdays 12z run which had the special maps out which showed 30m winds and 2 m temps.

After 190 hours the ECMWF had it emerging off the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche and Southwest Gulf of Mexico and turning more to the North North West.

Will be interesting, I have not checked back at the site to see if they still have the special maps avaliable for the 00z run today and the new 12z run of the model fixing to come out.

#48 Postby **drezee** » Sun Jul 03, 2005 4:38 pm

Winds have been constantly over 30mph sustained today on the buoys to the N of the wave Low pressure center.

Highest 1 minute Wind Speed
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
2026 27.0 kts E ( 98 deg true )

#49 Postby **drezee** » Sun Jul 03, 2005 4:43 pm

NAM brings it into the same location as TD3:

#50 Postby **drezee** » Sun Jul 03, 2005 4:45 pm

GEM says Texas Two-step...

#51 Postby **drezee** » Sun Jul 03, 2005 4:55 pm

Surface obs for the islands:

#52 Postby **drezee** » Sun Jul 03, 2005 5:22 pm

Winds are 25 - 30 knots sustained 100 mile N of the center. If the center closes off... this will be a depression.

Tropical Depression may be forming just E of islands...

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