96L for Caribbean System

[Derek Ortt]

Claudette formed in the E Carib

Plus, it did not undergo the Holliday and Thompson definition of RI, which is a 21mb drop in pressure over a 12 hour period (or 1.75mb/h)

[senorpepr]

Claudette formed in the E Carib

Plus, it did not undergo the Holliday and Thompson definition of RI, which is a 21mb drop in pressure over a 12 hour period (or 1.75mb/h)

Props to you Derek for mentioning the Holliday/Thompson definition of RI. BTW, I happen to work just down the hallway from Mr. Holliday.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think hurricane Mitch made that 21 millibars if I remember.

[Brent]

I think hurricane Mitch made that 21 millibars if I remember.

Not in the Gulf of Mexico.

[*StOrmsPr*]

Posible development with 96L in 36hrs

[Stratosphere747]

Claudette formed in the E Carib

Plus, it did not undergo the Holliday and Thompson definition of RI, which is a 21mb drop in pressure over a 12 hour period (or 1.75mb/h)

I did'nt phrase my question properly. Arr...

Moderate intensification would have been more appropriate.

[southerngale]

yes they do,

did you even read my post about the whole 4 cat 2 or higher storms that have FORMED in the GOM since 1965?

Yes I did. Very informative, thanks.

My uneducated guess has been TS all along. Of course it doesn't really matter if I'm right or wrong, because nobody should listen to me.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm actually citing that Holliday and Thompson paper in the SSMI/SHIPS Shear/Dropsonde paper I am working on

[senorpepr]

Invest (NA / 96L) (03/0600Z)
Position: 18.2°N 85.9°W (165 miles ENE from Belize City, Belize)
Movement: WNW at 13 mph
Winds: 30 mph
Pressure: 1009 mb / 29.8''
Dvorak Est: Too weak

[wxman57]

Just plotted all the ship/bupy/land obs between 06Z and 11Z. Wave axis is definitely approaching the coast of the Yucatan now. All I'm seeing from 85W eastward is southeast to south winds. Belize City's wind is calm. Cancun has an east wind of 15-20 kts. A number of stations down there don't report at night.

It appears that this is still an open wave with convection east of the wave axis. I can't find any evidence of a circulation using surface obs overnight, though the obs do suggest that if anything is there, it's west of 85W away from that convection and possibly along 18N.

[Thunder44]

From this morning's 8:05 TWD from the NHC:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W/87W SOUTH OF 24N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT ALREADY HAS MOVED ONSHORE IN CENTRAL
AMERICA...FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO CENTRAL HONDURAS AND
WESTERN NICARAGUA. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRAILS THIS
WAVE TO THE EAST BY ABOUT 80 NM. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE EAST OF THIS WAVE...EXTENDING FROM
15N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ARE RIGHT
IN THE MIDDLE OF ALL THIS PRECIPITATION. EASILY EXPECT LOTS
OF RAIN THERE AND ANY POSSIBLE PROBLEMS WHICH MAY OCCUR WITH
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT LEAST THE
LAST TWO TO THREE HOURS. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR THIS AREA
OF HEAVY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO MAINTAIN ITSELF ENOUGH AND MOVE
OVER SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO
CAUSING POSSIBLE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
IN THIS AREA ARE REACHING ABOUT -85C WITH CLOUD TOPS REACHING
HEIGHTS FROM 50000 FEET TO 55000 FEET. OTHER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND AROUND THIS MORE CONCENTRATED AREA
FROM 14N TO 22N REACHING CUBA FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 79W AND
87W REACHING THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE
FORECAST FOR THIS FEATURE IS FOR IT TO BE A POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

03/1145 UTC 18.0N 86.2W TOO WEAK 96 -- Atlantic Ocean


The first sat estimates are too weak.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962005) ON 20050703 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050703 1200 050704 0000 050704 1200 050705 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.5N 86.0W 19.6N 88.0W 21.1N 90.0W 23.0N 91.8W
BAMM 18.5N 86.0W 19.7N 87.9W 21.1N 90.0W 23.0N 91.8W
A98E 18.5N 86.0W 19.4N 87.4W 20.7N 89.0W 22.6N 90.6W
LBAR 18.5N 86.0W 19.6N 87.8W 21.4N 89.8W 23.5N 91.7W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 30KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050705 1200 050706 1200 050707 1200 050708 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.8N 93.2W 27.7N 94.3W 29.6N 93.6W 30.4N 90.9W
BAMM 24.6N 93.3W 27.0N 95.3W 28.5N 96.5W 29.1N 97.5W
A98E 24.8N 92.3W 28.9N 94.7W 31.8N 93.7W 33.5N 88.3W
LBAR 25.7N 92.9W 29.5N 92.6W 31.6N 87.7W 33.9N 79.5W
SHIP 49KTS 57KTS 62KTS 63KTS
DSHP 42KTS 51KTS 46KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.5N LONCUR = 86.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 17.9N LONM12 = 84.9W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 17.0N LONM24 = 82.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


12:00z run of the models.Moving 300 degrees at 8kts.

[Tommedic]

I appreciate the update and graphic. I appreciate your thorough assessments. Tom

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Is it possible that a new llc could form further to the east south of cuba in all of the very deep convection later today and completely throws these model runs out the window. Or as the day goes will they just collapse and refire again later on. As of now those are looking pretty serious. I would not want that over my house.

[Agua]

Is it possible that a new llc could form further to the east south of cuba in all of the very deep convection later today and completely throws these model runs out the window.

I don't believe there is *any* llc, yet, so initialization is really bad without an actual center.

[wxboy]

agreed. This system is moving NW, and model output is really not to be trusted right now. I think at the worst it will clip the Yucatan channel.

[drezee]

The TPC says tons of rain!

SATELLITE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RAINFALL ESTIMATES
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SUN JUL 3 2005


SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...(NULL)

MAX RAINFALL
DATE/TIME LOCATION MOTION MEAN LAST
----------- ------------ ------ ------- -------
3/1215 UTC 18.8N 82.3W 285/20 4.6 IN 5.6 IN

[Wpwxguy]

Now thats a serious blow up of thunderstorms. The convection is pretty intense just to the east of the so called center of circulation. I don't think that land will inhibit a whole lot, maybe keep it from exploding but not kill it. I am really very concerned about its future. It may be real trouble when it gets in the gulf. IMO

[tw861]

agreed. This system is moving NW, and model output is really not to be trusted right now. I think at the worst it will clip the Yucatan channel.

I'm not sure about a low level circulation yet, but this system is not currently moving NW. WNW maybe but not yet NW.