Shock-o-The-Century...0Z GFS

[MWatkins]

Of course, I am probably guilty of a bit of an overstatement.

The 0Z GFS...just out a couple of hours now...continues to not be a big fan of the western Caribbean system. Also, beware, there are Seinfeld references coming so please be prepared.

The GFS is extreemly weak with the system, again, and brings in into the New Orleans area in 66 hours or so...and what a shock...then it intensifies the system once INLAND.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_060s.gif

So...perhaps...either the system has no chance because even the over-enthusiastic GFS can't get it going...or it's like the Opposite George episode, and the gulf is in big trouble.

Looks like the little ULL to the NW is getting out of the way and a pretty good upper-ridge is setting up in the western Caribbean...however...the Yucatan looms.

So it could be like the Even Steven episode, the upper environment looks really good but the center is over land.

Unfortunately, for gulf hurricane fans, if that happens it looks like the Soup...er...hurricane Nazi may be saying..."no Hurricane for you".

I am through with deterministic forecasts...but probabalistically...

Even Steven: 70%
Opposite George: 29.9%
GFS is Right: 0.1%

MW

[Terry]

All I can say is LOL, Mike. Nice post.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Most likely even Steven.

[Stormcenter]

LMAOF that's all I can say.

[Radar]

The odds of this verifying are about the same odds as Kramer stealing Katie Holmes away from Tom Cruise... And we all know the odds of that.

The cereal in Seinfeld's cupboard is better organized then what this model shows the system to be.

[hurricanetrack]

The GFS also spins up a cyclone around day 6 or so and brings it right in to SE Florida.

NICE!

Just think....one of these days, the GFS will be right.

[rsdoug1981]

The Canadian is doing interesting things tonight as well...

[Stormcenter]

The Canadian is doing interesting things tonight as well...

Like what?

[rsdoug1981]

Well...

It shows this system passing into the BOC followed by yet another disturbance passing through the BOC...

Here's the url:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

And don't forget to notice the other disturbance in the Caribbean....and the other one coming off the coast of Africa.

[MWatkins]

The GFS also spins up a cyclone around day 6 or so and brings it right in to SE Florida.

NICE!

Just think....one of these days, the GFS will be right.

At least...if that verifies...I don't have to drive to Pensacola.

NICE!

A sure-fire cure for insomnia...driving from Ft Lauderdale to Pensacola.

The GFS may already be the broken clock right 2x per day. But...sooner or later it will be right.

MW

[Scorpion]

SE FL?? Oh, its the GFS .

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Don't ever trust the Gfs past 24 hours on development. Its no good at forecasting tropical cyclone formation.

[Hurricaneman]

Tropical Cyclones just don't develop over land, so I discount the GFS

[senorpepr]

Right, GFS is really a mid-latitude model.

[gatorcane]

lets wait until Aug-Sept people! I promise we will see alot of action then! It's too early right now!