10:30 TWO

[swimaster20]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 030229
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED BETWEEN 100 TO 200
MILES EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE ALSO BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN AND NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...YUCATAN CHANNEL...THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. SQUALLS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

[Brent]

[cycloneye]

No mention of the atlantic wave but I know they are looking closely at it.They are waiting for much more organization than what it is now and convection persistance.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It has 12 to 16 hours over water left. Then a day or more over the Yact. We will see.

[senorpepr]

No shock that the TWO didn't mention the Atlantic wave. There really isn't much to it but a lot of cirrus.

[Derek Ortt]

the fact that the carib wave they are mentioning is located according to Stewart just 100-200 miles offshore and is moving to the west at 10-15, leads me to believe no recon tomorrow as it will be inland. He mentions a couple of days before formation, meaning they are thinking GOM formation, as I am as well

[hurricanetrack]

I have never heard of the Yucatan refered to as "yact". As Watkins would say, "NICE!"

[senorpepr]

the fact that the carib wave they are mentioning is located according to Stewart just 100-200 miles offshore and is moving to the west at 10-15, leads me to believe no recon tomorrow as it will be inland. He mentions a couple of days before formation, meaning they are thinking GOM formation, as I am as well

Yup, that's exactly what I got out of the outlook as well.

The 0Z models initalized the system moving at 29011KT. That will put it about 156 miles WNW of that position by 12Z tomorrow morning -- well inland. If that's the case, recon will be scrapped and the airmen may get another day to relax.

[Brent]

If that's the case, recon will be scrapped and the airmen may get another day to relax.

Going in on Independence Day perhaps?

[Stormcenter]

the fact that the carib wave they are mentioning is located according to Stewart just 100-200 miles offshore and is moving to the west at 10-15, leads me to believe no recon tomorrow as it will be inland. He mentions a couple of days before formation, meaning they are thinking GOM formation, as I am as well

Moving WNW per NHC 10:30pm update.

[Brent]

the fact that the carib wave they are mentioning is located according to Stewart just 100-200 miles offshore and is moving to the west at 10-15, leads me to believe no recon tomorrow as it will be inland. He mentions a couple of days before formation, meaning they are thinking GOM formation, as I am as well

Moving WNW per NHC 10:30pm update.

Still goes in over the Yucatan. Must move almost straight north to avoid it.

[*StOrmsPr*]

Posible dev in 36hrs for 96L

[Swimdude]

Ahhh excellent. I've been out of town for a few days, and things are starting to get active some! I knew my absence would do it!

[Hurricaneman]

Probably will start developing july 4th